Learn Intraday NIFTY Options Trading Using Camarilla | Intraday Strategy
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: a pivot (R1/S1) break on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,527 trades on ₹1L: net -85.7% over 12 years (-7.1%/yr, loses money), win 41%, payoff 1.36 (avg win ₹2,735 / avg loss ₹-2,006), max drawdown -137%, worst trade ₹-10,302. 2015: ₹-9,544. 2016: ₹+2,495. 2017: ₹-3,747. 2018: ₹+8,725. 2019: ₹+12,195. 2020: ₹-14,874. 2021: ₹-17,805. 2022: ₹-39,308. 2023: ₹+7,913. 2024: ₹-19,607. 2025: ₹-7,841. 2026: ₹-4,308.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 62 | 45% | ₹-9,544 |
| 2016 | 82 | 44% | ₹+2,495 |
| 2017 | 113 | 45% | ₹-3,747 |
| 2018 | 122 | 51% | ₹+8,725 |
| 2019 | 110 | 43% | ₹+12,195 |
| 2020 | 130 | 38% | ₹-14,874 |
| 2021 | 202 | 40% | ₹-17,805 |
| 2022 | 159 | 40% | ₹-39,308 |
| 2023 | 156 | 40% | ₹+7,913 |
| 2024 | 117 | 36% | ₹-19,607 |
| 2025 | 189 | 40% | ₹-7,841 |
| 2026 | 85 | 39% | ₹-4,308 |
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