This INTRADAY Trading Strategy Helped Me Quit My Job | Ft. Pawan Sharma
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.31R expectancy across 5,819 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -23% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Multi-timeframe moving average (SMMA 11/21) crossover strategy with higher-timeframe confirmation filter to eliminate false signals; uses HTF (Higher Time Frame) MA for trend bias on 5m/15m charts wit Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 5,819 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.31, expectancy +0.31R/trade (avg +1.68%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9% | +17% | +53% | +18% | +0% | +23% | +10% | +3% | +6% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 369 | 27% | -0.22R | -1.79% |
| 2019 | 765 | 32% | +0.08R | +0.35% |
| 2020 | 608 | 47% | +1.08R | +8.93% |
| 2021 | 667 | 36% | +0.39R | +2.17% |
| 2022 | 772 | 30% | +0.08R | +0.25% |
| 2023 | 726 | 44% | +1.24R | +5.28% |
| 2024 | 712 | 26% | +0.12R | +0.47% |
| 2025 | 835 | 27% | -0.04R | -0.59% |
| 2026 | 365 | 21% | -0.32R | -1.62% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 34 | 32% | +1.6% | +44% | +54% | +44% |
| 2 | ████████ | 31 | 35% | +6.2% | +53% | +191% | +41% |
| 3 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +4.3% | +74% | +186% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 30 | 30% | +4.1% | +92% | +124% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 35 | 34% | +15.0% | +170% | +526% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 35 | 43% | +6.3% | +80% | +221% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 38 | 32% | +5.2% | +94% | +197% | +31% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 36 | 39% | +4.3% | +61% | +154% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 13 | 23% | -1.3% | +22% | -17% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 35 | 37% | +10.3% | +260% | +362% | +21% |
| 11 | ████████ | 22 | 32% | +4.3% | +55% | +94% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 28 | 39% | +4.9% | +51% | +137% | +14% |
| 13 | ████████ | 34 | 35% | +1.6% | +56% | +54% | +14% |
| 14 | ████████ | 41 | 27% | +2.3% | +82% | +94% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 43 | 33% | +2.6% | +69% | +113% | +11% |
| 16 | ████████ | 40 | 42% | +3.5% | +72% | +139% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 31 | 35% | +3.0% | +61% | +94% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 35 | 26% | +0.0% | +39% | +1% | +10% |
| 19 | ████████ | 38 | 37% | +1.2% | +19% | +45% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 36 | 47% | +3.9% | +81% | +140% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 42 | 21% | +1.6% | +63% | +68% | -22% |
| 22 | ████████ | 40 | 22% | -0.7% | +22% | -30% | -20% |
| 23 | ████████ | 38 | 37% | +0.2% | +22% | +9% | -20% |
| 24 | ████████ | 38 | 26% | +1.1% | +37% | +43% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 37 | 38% | +3.8% | +34% | +141% | -20% |
| 26 | ████████ | 35 | 26% | -0.3% | +30% | -9% | -19% |
| 27 | ████████ | 43 | 21% | -0.1% | +27% | -5% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 38 | 21% | +0.4% | +38% | +14% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 8 | 38% | +6.4% | +37% | +51% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 38 | 32% | +2.1% | +40% | +81% | -19% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 46 | 43% | +0.55R | +1.12% |
| BANKNIFTY | 50 | 40% | +0.29R | +0.91% |
Full transcript (7047 words)
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