Intraday Trading की ज़बरदस्त Strategy!!
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.31R expectancy across 15,263 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.0 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -26% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Intraday 15-min breakout strategy using multiple MA convergence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21 periods) as a base-squeeze signal, then trade the breakout. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 15,263 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.03, expectancy +0.31R/trade (avg +1.59%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +14% | +57% | +14% | +5% | +18% | +2% | -1% | -9% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 761 | 20% | -0.50R | -3.34% |
| 2019 | 1545 | 29% | -0.04R | -0.13% |
| 2020 | 2021 | 44% | +0.85R | +6.47% |
| 2021 | 1991 | 37% | +0.46R | +2.57% |
| 2022 | 1941 | 28% | -0.07R | -0.64% |
| 2023 | 2360 | 45% | +1.26R | +5.27% |
| 2024 | 2055 | 28% | +0.07R | +0.04% |
| 2025 | 1757 | 28% | -0.09R | -0.72% |
| 2026 | 832 | 23% | -0.31R | -1.48% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 105 | 50% | +16.9% | +124% | +1780% | +195% |
| 2 | ████████ | 86 | 47% | +8.5% | +104% | +729% | +187% |
| 3 | ████████ | 93 | 52% | +26.1% | +181% | +2430% | +184% |
| 4 | ████████ | 85 | 31% | +2.9% | +52% | +249% | +143% |
| 5 | ████████ | 87 | 40% | +8.0% | +125% | +696% | +85% |
| 6 | ████████ | 81 | 35% | +3.2% | +101% | +260% | +71% |
| 7 | ████████ | 107 | 49% | +8.0% | +59% | +852% | +69% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 104 | 34% | +2.2% | +68% | +229% | +60% |
| 9 | ████████ | 115 | 37% | +5.3% | +61% | +607% | +59% |
| 10 | ████████ | 112 | 38% | +4.3% | +65% | +486% | +50% |
| 11 | ████████ | 30 | 27% | -2.1% | +22% | -64% | +37% |
| 12 | ████████ | 106 | 42% | +3.7% | +66% | +394% | +31% |
| 13 | ████████ | 55 | 40% | +5.9% | +70% | +325% | +29% |
| 14 | ████████ | 127 | 36% | +0.7% | +32% | +88% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 115 | 34% | +2.0% | +50% | +231% | +10% |
| 16 | ████████ | 116 | 37% | +1.7% | +61% | +198% | +7% |
| 17 | ████████ | 96 | 46% | +3.8% | +52% | +363% | +5% |
| 18 | ████████ | 114 | 38% | +1.1% | +42% | +121% | +5% |
| 19 | ████████ | 93 | 38% | +0.9% | +31% | +86% | +4% |
| 20 | ████████ | 106 | 27% | -1.8% | +29% | -190% | +4% |
| 21 | ████████ | 108 | 30% | +0.6% | +37% | +63% | -53% |
| 22 | ████████ | 78 | 31% | +1.8% | +60% | +139% | -50% |
| 23 | ████████ | 106 | 30% | +1.9% | +106% | +203% | -45% |
| 24 | ████████ | 110 | 29% | -0.3% | +36% | -37% | -41% |
| 25 | ████████ | 96 | 30% | -1.3% | +34% | -124% | -36% |
| 26 | ████████ | 89 | 35% | +0.8% | +40% | +67% | -34% |
| 27 | ████████ | 106 | 30% | +1.7% | +86% | +175% | -34% |
| 28 | ████████ | 120 | 38% | +3.5% | +83% | +424% | -34% |
| 29 | ████████ | 85 | 20% | -2.5% | +26% | -211% | -33% |
| 30 | ████████ | 110 | 31% | -0.3% | +49% | -37% | -33% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 198 | 35% | +0.12R | +0.07% |
| BANKNIFTY | 173 | 36% | +0.28R | +0.83% |
Full transcript (159 words)
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