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Intraday Supertrend + Pivot Option Selling (Theta Gainers / Riyanshu)
Theta Gainers
Analysed 01 Jul 2026, 11:31 PM IST
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “~35-36%/yr on ~Rs2.5L, ~12% max drawdown (1-year backtest)”
Verdict
The directional ENGINE (5-min Supertrend(7,3)+pivot break, ride trend days to the close) is a real, thin convex edge — the trades that ride to EOD win 65% at 3.3 payoff. But monetising it by SELLING ATM options inverts the convexity: it CAPS the trend-day winners that carry the edge and keeps the fat left tail. The shaped payoff goes negative.
A 1-year backtest can't price a premium-selling tail. His own −38 lakh single-day loss IS that tail. Theta pads calm months and turns negative when VIX expands. Returns = premium, risk = the tail.
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