Intraday Option Buying with Advanced Red Bar Theory | Simple and stupid #nifty #trading #stockmarket
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
6,273 trades on ₹1L: net -556.2% over 12 years (-46.4%/yr, loses money), win 40%, payoff 1.37 (avg win ₹2,266 / avg loss ₹-1,658), max drawdown -612%, worst trade ₹-11,538. 2015: ₹-48,563. 2016: ₹-48,194. 2017: ₹-26,719. 2018: ₹-23,046. 2019: ₹-38,691. 2020: ₹-48,230. 2021: ₹-17,694. 2022: ₹-46,079. 2023: ₹-105,736. 2024: ₹-59,307. 2025: ₹-109,233. 2026: ₹+15,321.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 262 | 43% | ₹-48,563 |
| 2016 | 414 | 43% | ₹-48,194 |
| 2017 | 488 | 39% | ₹-26,719 |
| 2018 | 496 | 42% | ₹-23,046 |
| 2019 | 522 | 39% | ₹-38,691 |
| 2020 | 528 | 38% | ₹-48,230 |
| 2021 | 719 | 41% | ₹-17,694 |
| 2022 | 560 | 41% | ₹-46,079 |
| 2023 | 627 | 37% | ₹-105,736 |
| 2024 | 514 | 39% | ₹-59,307 |
| 2025 | 828 | 40% | ₹-109,233 |
| 2026 | 315 | 43% | ₹+15,321 |
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