Your idea: Yeah. Your strategy is basically “wait for price to reach an important… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Yeah. Your strategy is basically “wait for price to reach an important…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 06 Oct 2026, 10:05 AM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 240 trades

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Liquidity/ICT

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Range consolidation with liquidity sweep and rejection confirmation; buy/sell on return into the zone after a failed breakout. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 240 trades, win 47%, payoff 1.52, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +0.29%/trade).

This is a real edge. Reasonably consistent (88% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-10-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+18.3%
CAGR+2.4%
Max drawdown-6.4%
Trades233 · 110 won
₹200,000 → ₹236,516  ·  2019-04-18 → 2026-06-08
20192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+5%+4%+2%+3%+1%+1%+1%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20191953% +0.45R +0.51%
20204448% +0.31R +0.66%
20214146% +0.25R +0.35%
20223546% -0.06R +0.11%
20233057% +0.53R +0.40%
20243139% +0.02R -0.01%
20252544% +0.14R +0.02%
20261540% +0.09R +0.08%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 117 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 425% +0.0% +6% +0% +6%
2 ████████ 450% +1.2% +6% +5% +5%
3 ████████ 1100% +2.6% +3% +3% +3%
4 ████████ 1100% +3.0% +3% +3% +3%
5 ████████ 475% +0.9% +2% +3% +2%
6 ████████ 425% -0.7% +2% -3% +1%
7 ████████ 3100% +4.5% +5% +13% +0%
8 JINDALSTEL free peek 475% +1.9% +5% +8% +0%
9 ████████ 2100% +3.8% +4% +8% +0%
10 ████████ 2100% +3.9% +4% +8% +0%
11 ████████ 2100% +3.7% +4% +7% +0%
12 ████████ 2100% +3.0% +3% +6% +0%
13 ████████ 2100% +2.9% +3% +6% +0%
14 ████████ 1100% +6.2% +6% +6% +0%
15 ████████ 450% +1.2% +7% +5% +0%
16 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
17 ████████ 250% +2.3% +6% +5% +0%
18 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
19 ████████ 450% +1.1% +7% +5% +0%
20 ████████ 250% +2.7% +8% +5% +0%
21 ████████ 20% -3.0% +-3% -6% -3%
22 ████████ 520% -1.0% +3% -5% -2%
23 ████████ 10% -2.1% +-2% -2% -2%
24 ████████ 425% +0.0% +5% +0% -2%
25 ████████ 250% -0.1% +2% +0% -2%
26 ████████ 250% +0.4% +3% +1% -2%
27 ████████ 250% +2.0% +6% +4% -2%
28 ████████ 540% +0.3% +5% +1% -1%
29 ████████ 30% -2.9% +-3% -9% +0%
30 ████████ 10% -5.6% +-6% -6% +0%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -9% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Full transcript (439 words)
Yeah. Your strategy is basically “wait for price to reach an important edge, fake a breakout, then enter when it comes back.” Your strategy in plain words Think of price as moving inside a box: RESISTANCE ───────────────── ↑ ↑ ↑ │ │ │ │ ← price moves around │ │ ───────────────── SUPPORT ↓ ↓ ↓ 1. Find the range First, you want price to be consolidating, meaning it's bouncing between roughly the same high and low. - Top = resistance - Bottom = support - Ideally price has touched each area several times. - You don't want a strong trend. 2. Wait for a liquidity sweep This is the important part. Imagine price reaches support: Resistance ───────────────── ↓ ↓ ──────────────── Support ↓ ↓ ← breaks below ↓ ↑ ← comes back inside Price temporarily goes below support. Why? There may be orders sitting around that obvious low, including stop-losses and breakout orders. But instead of continuing downward, price comes back above support. That's your liquidity sweep. In simple words: Price pokes outside the range, fails to continue, and comes back inside. 3. Wait for confirmation Don't immediately buy just because it swept support. You want to see something like: Sweep → comes back inside → rejection/confirmation → BUY Example: Resistance ──────────────────────── price ↓ ↓ ────────────── Support ↓ ↓ ← SWEEP ↑ ↑ ← closes back inside ↑ BUY For a short, it's the opposite: ↑ ↑ ← SWEEP ────────────── Resistance ↓ ↓ ← comes back inside ↓ SELL 4. Your actual trade idea LONG: Price is ranging → reaches support → breaks below it → fails to continue down → comes back inside → shows rejection → BUY. SHORT: Price is ranging → reaches resistance → breaks above it → fails to continue up → comes back inside → shows rejection → SELL. 5. Stop and target For your strategy: Long: Resistance ──────────────────── ↑ │ TP ───────────┼──────── │ ENTRY │ │ ↓ SWEEP X ← SL Your stop goes below the sweep. Your target is generally the middle of the range, rather than trying to predict a huge move. For a short, reverse everything. The easiest way to remember it Your entire strategy can basically be reduced to: BOX → EDGE → SWEEP → REJECT → ENTER And don't trade the middle of the box. The biggest mistake would be: “Price touched support, so I'll buy.” ❌ That's not your setup. Your setup is: “Price touched support → went below it → failed → came back inside → confirmed rejection → now I can consider buying.” That's the core of your Support/Resistance + Liquidity Sweep + Range Rejection strategy.

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