Your idea: When EMA 5 crosses EMA 11 and strike price is above VWAP
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.00R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 30% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 6 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2024) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -78% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: 5-EMA trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 38,199 trades, win 30%, payoff 2.36, expectancy +0.00R/trade (avg -0.21%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-15 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -22% | -43% | +6% | +61% | -32% | -18% | -3% | -33% | -7% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2224 | 26% | -0.05R | -0.59% |
| 2019 | 4703 | 28% | -0.04R | -0.51% |
| 2020 | 4663 | 35% | +0.10R | +0.54% |
| 2021 | 4759 | 32% | +0.07R | +0.18% |
| 2022 | 4794 | 29% | -0.03R | -0.46% |
| 2023 | 4881 | 32% | +0.07R | +0.04% |
| 2024 | 4929 | 30% | -0.01R | -0.30% |
| 2025 | 5234 | 28% | -0.06R | -0.57% |
| 2026 | 2012 | 26% | -0.09R | -0.60% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 235 | 28% | +2.8% | +111% | +652% | +32% |
| 2 | ████████ | 235 | 30% | +0.8% | +66% | +184% | +32% |
| 3 | ████████ | 239 | 29% | +0.2% | +59% | +48% | +29% |
| 4 | ████████ | 245 | 29% | +1.2% | +81% | +300% | +28% |
| 5 | ████████ | 213 | 38% | +2.5% | +171% | +539% | +26% |
| 6 | ████████ | 247 | 26% | +1.1% | +90% | +278% | +21% |
| 7 | ████████ | 219 | 31% | +0.4% | +46% | +89% | +20% |
| 8 | KEI free peek | 250 | 33% | +0.3% | +33% | +64% | +20% |
| 9 | ████████ | 227 | 29% | -0.0% | +19% | -9% | +20% |
| 10 | ████████ | 81 | 28% | -0.8% | +14% | -68% | +18% |
| 11 | ████████ | 268 | 30% | -0.3% | +29% | -68% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 213 | 38% | +0.7% | +37% | +142% | +15% |
| 13 | ████████ | 238 | 29% | +0.4% | +44% | +89% | +15% |
| 14 | ████████ | 258 | 28% | -0.1% | +45% | -37% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 246 | 26% | -0.1% | +24% | -26% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 261 | 26% | -0.5% | +23% | -122% | +14% |
| 17 | ████████ | 241 | 27% | +0.1% | +27% | +26% | +11% |
| 18 | ████████ | 234 | 26% | -0.1% | +26% | -19% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 215 | 30% | +0.1% | +42% | +24% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 274 | 24% | -0.9% | +17% | -246% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 255 | 25% | -0.6% | +17% | -144% | -52% |
| 22 | ████████ | 250 | 30% | -0.2% | +17% | -58% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 237 | 31% | -0.1% | +40% | -15% | -36% |
| 24 | ████████ | 266 | 24% | -0.5% | +19% | -131% | -31% |
| 25 | ████████ | 272 | 24% | -0.5% | +31% | -147% | -30% |
| 26 | ████████ | 251 | 27% | -0.5% | +17% | -133% | -29% |
| 27 | ████████ | 238 | 29% | -0.2% | +30% | -41% | -29% |
| 28 | ████████ | 229 | 35% | +0.7% | +31% | +156% | -28% |
| 29 | ████████ | 249 | 24% | -0.5% | +29% | -125% | -27% |
| 30 | ████████ | 253 | 27% | -0.4% | +39% | -89% | -27% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 311 | 33% | -0.03R | -0.36% |
| BANKNIFTY | 336 | 27% | -0.05R | -0.41% |
Full transcript (12 words)
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