Your idea: when 3 minute candle closes above the high of a 30min candle then uy w…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.41R expectancy across 11,194 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.5 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -29% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 3-minute candle breakout above/below 30-minute candle high/low with 1:2 risk-reward on NIFTY. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 11,194 trades, win 31%, payoff 3.50, expectancy +0.41R/trade (avg +2.15%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-07 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +8% | +51% | +30% | -15% | +26% | +6% | +2% | +0% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 466 | 9% | -0.77R | -4.95% |
| 2019 | 1064 | 26% | +0.00R | +0.17% |
| 2020 | 1562 | 41% | +1.10R | +8.09% |
| 2021 | 1590 | 33% | +0.43R | +2.63% |
| 2022 | 1362 | 25% | -0.03R | -0.52% |
| 2023 | 1816 | 43% | +1.35R | +5.76% |
| 2024 | 1593 | 27% | +0.16R | +0.54% |
| 2025 | 1231 | 29% | +0.00R | -0.28% |
| 2026 | 510 | 21% | -0.37R | -1.69% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 68 | 54% | +31.2% | +181% | +2125% | +146% |
| 2 | ████████ | 83 | 53% | +21.9% | +124% | +1819% | +126% |
| 3 | ████████ | 57 | 46% | +5.7% | +72% | +322% | +97% |
| 4 | ████████ | 57 | 37% | +5.2% | +52% | +296% | +96% |
| 5 | ████████ | 66 | 39% | +9.6% | +125% | +636% | +84% |
| 6 | ████████ | 89 | 37% | +3.0% | +54% | +266% | +84% |
| 7 | ████████ | 60 | 35% | +4.7% | +101% | +281% | +76% |
| 8 | BHEL free peek | 76 | 38% | +4.2% | +66% | +319% | +48% |
| 9 | ████████ | 80 | 39% | +11.4% | +255% | +909% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 87 | 30% | +3.9% | +65% | +339% | +23% |
| 11 | ████████ | 79 | 30% | +0.4% | +49% | +34% | +23% |
| 12 | ████████ | 76 | 30% | +5.1% | +92% | +386% | +17% |
| 13 | ████████ | 78 | 29% | +3.8% | +61% | +297% | +17% |
| 14 | ████████ | 92 | 40% | +7.5% | +61% | +692% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 85 | 44% | +5.4% | +48% | +455% | +10% |
| 16 | ████████ | 90 | 33% | +0.4% | +32% | +38% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 36 | 33% | +1.0% | +43% | +38% | +5% |
| 18 | ████████ | 93 | 37% | +2.8% | +48% | +261% | +3% |
| 19 | ████████ | 65 | 25% | -1.4% | +35% | -93% | +3% |
| 20 | ████████ | 93 | 52% | +12.0% | +97% | +1120% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 71 | 21% | -1.8% | +25% | -127% | -44% |
| 22 | ████████ | 22 | 9% | -5.1% | +10% | -112% | -40% |
| 23 | ████████ | 73 | 29% | +3.3% | +69% | +238% | -40% |
| 24 | ████████ | 57 | 30% | +2.5% | +60% | +142% | -39% |
| 25 | ████████ | 93 | 24% | +0.7% | +105% | +61% | -38% |
| 26 | ████████ | 44 | 18% | +0.8% | +100% | +37% | -37% |
| 27 | ████████ | 89 | 25% | +1.5% | +69% | +135% | -35% |
| 28 | ████████ | 77 | 29% | +0.2% | +41% | +12% | -33% |
| 29 | ████████ | 90 | 24% | +1.0% | +53% | +93% | -33% |
| 30 | ████████ | 85 | 21% | +1.5% | +61% | +131% | -33% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 164 | 35% | +0.35R | +0.62% |
| BANKNIFTY | 138 | 31% | +0.15R | +0.48% |
Full transcript (37 words)
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