Y
Your idea: //@version=6 strategy( "Priyank Sharma - 21 EMA 3 Candle Strategy…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 18 Sep 2026, 11:36 PM IST
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.08R across 18,498 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.7 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 26% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -50% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 21 EMA breakout + 3-candle pullback confirmation with stop-loss and risk-reward rules. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 18,498 trades, win 26%, payoff 3.67, expectancy +0.08R/trade (avg +0.28%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return-7.9%
CAGR-1.0%
Max drawdown-50.0%
Trades1053 · 228 won
₹200,000 → ₹184,259
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -15% | +37% | +56% | -24% | +13% | +3% | -29% | -11% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1102 | 24% | -0.07R | -0.69% |
| 2019 | 2386 | 24% | -0.02R | -0.36% |
| 2020 | 2165 | 32% | +0.31R | +2.18% |
| 2021 | 2300 | 28% | +0.16R | +0.77% |
| 2022 | 2351 | 25% | +0.01R | -0.13% |
| 2023 | 2222 | 30% | +0.37R | +1.42% |
| 2024 | 2381 | 24% | +0.01R | -0.16% |
| 2025 | 2574 | 23% | -0.06R | -0.58% |
| 2026 | 1017 | 22% | -0.12R | -0.73% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 106 | 26% | +5.5% | +173% | +583% | +60% |
| 2 | ████████ | 128 | 27% | +0.1% | +46% | +15% | +41% |
| 3 | ████████ | 109 | 30% | +4.4% | +110% | +476% | +36% |
| 4 | ████████ | 106 | 31% | +4.6% | +154% | +482% | +35% |
| 5 | ████████ | 100 | 34% | +3.8% | +133% | +384% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 122 | 23% | +2.7% | +97% | +335% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 114 | 28% | +1.2% | +61% | +138% | +28% |
| 8 | OFSS free peek | 120 | 22% | +0.5% | +106% | +61% | +27% |
| 9 | ████████ | 34 | 21% | -1.5% | +15% | -50% | +27% |
| 10 | ████████ | 83 | 40% | +3.2% | +58% | +263% | +26% |
| 11 | ████████ | 112 | 29% | +1.6% | +83% | +181% | +25% |
| 12 | ████████ | 111 | 26% | +0.8% | +50% | +87% | +14% |
| 13 | ████████ | 113 | 25% | -0.1% | +55% | -6% | +14% |
| 14 | ████████ | 109 | 24% | +0.2% | +39% | +23% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 97 | 33% | +1.8% | +50% | +178% | +12% |
| 16 | ████████ | 122 | 27% | +0.7% | +36% | +91% | +12% |
| 17 | ████████ | 119 | 24% | +0.1% | +22% | +16% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 72 | 17% | +0.6% | +65% | +41% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 119 | 24% | +0.3% | +110% | +33% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 115 | 30% | +0.4% | +33% | +45% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 65 | 25% | +0.0% | +60% | +3% | -32% |
| 22 | ████████ | 131 | 24% | -0.3% | +33% | -36% | -31% |
| 23 | ████████ | 129 | 24% | +0.9% | +121% | +121% | -29% |
| 24 | ████████ | 113 | 26% | -0.0% | +46% | -3% | -26% |
| 25 | ████████ | 34 | 29% | +0.9% | +36% | +31% | -26% |
| 26 | ████████ | 128 | 23% | -0.4% | +25% | -48% | -25% |
| 27 | ████████ | 137 | 21% | -0.5% | +30% | -67% | -24% |
| 28 | ████████ | 124 | 19% | -0.1% | +55% | -6% | -24% |
| 29 | ████████ | 132 | 24% | -0.7% | +17% | -90% | -23% |
| 30 | ████████ | 135 | 22% | -0.6% | +12% | -84% | -22% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -90% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 148 | 27% | +0.10R | -0.04% |
| BANKNIFTY | 150 | 28% | +0.11R | +0.16% |
Full transcript (489 words)
//@version=6 strategy( "Priyank Sharma - 21 EMA 3 Candle Strategy", overlay = true, pyramiding = 0, initial_capital = 100000, process_orders_on_close = false, calc_on_order_fills = true ) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // INPUTS //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ emaLen = input.int(21, "EMA Length") rr = input.float(1.5, "Minimum Risk : Reward", minval = 1.0, step = 0.5) useSession = input.bool(true, "NIFTY Session") session = input.session("0915-1525", "Trading Session") strict3 = input.bool(true, "Strict 3-Candle Confirmation") useTrail = input.bool(true, "Enable Trailing SL") trailAtR = input.float(1.0, "Start Trailing After R", minval = 0.5) trailRR = input.float(0.5, "Trail Distance (R)", minval = 0.1, step = 0.1) showSLTP = input.bool(true, "Show SL / TP") showLabels = input.bool(true, "Show BUY / SELL") //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // EMA 21 //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ema21 = ta.ema(close, emaLen) plot( ema21, title = "21 EMA", color = color.blue, linewidth = 2 ) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // SESSION //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ inSession = not na( time(timeframe.period, session, "Asia/Kolkata") ) allowed = not useSession or inSession //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // STATE VARIABLES //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ var int setup = 0 // 0 = no setup // 1 = bullish breakout waiting for pullback // -1 = bearish breakout waiting for pullback var int barsAfterBreak = 0 var float pendingEntry = na var float pendingSL = na var float activeSL = na var float activeTP = na var float risk = na var bool trailing = false //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // BREAKOUT CONDITIONS //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // Bullish: // Price crosses and CLOSES above 21 EMA bullBreak = ta.crossover(close, ema21) // Bearish: // Price crosses and CLOSES below 21 EMA bearBreak = ta.crossunder(close, ema21) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // START NEW SETUP //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ if strategy.position_size == 0 // Bullish breakout if bullBreak setup := 1 barsAfterBreak := 0 // Bearish breakout if bearBreak setup := -1 barsAfterBreak := 0 //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // COUNT CANDLES AFTER BREAKOUT //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ if setup != 0 and strategy.position_size == 0 barsAfterBreak += 1 // Cancel setup after 3 candles if barsAfterBreak > 3 setup := 0 barsAfterBreak := 0 //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // 3-CANDLE PULLBACK LOGIC //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // LONG // After bullish EMA breakout: // Pullback candle must: // 1. Stay above EMA // 2. Be bearish/opposite colored // 3. Become the trigger candle // // STRICT MODE = pullback on 3rd candle longPullback = setup == 1 and ( (strict3 and barsAfterBreak == 3) or (not strict3 and barsAfterBreak >= 1 and barsAfterBreak <= 3) ) and close > ema21 and close < open // SHORT // After bearish EMA breakout: // Pullback candle must: // 1. Stay below EMA // 2. Be bullish/opposite colored // 3. Become trigger candle shortPullback = setup == -1 and ( (strict3 and barsAfterBreak == 3) or (not strict3 and barsAfterBreak >= 1 and barsAfterBreak <= 3) ) and close < ema21 and close > open //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // CREATE PENDING ENTRY //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ if longPullback and strategy.position_size == 0 pendingEntry := high pendingSL := low strategy.entry( "BUY", strategy.long, stop = pendingEntry ) setup := 0 barsAfterBreak := 0 if shortPullback and strategy.position_size == 0 pendingEntry := low pendingSL := high strategy.entry( "SELL", strategy.short,
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