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Your idea: //@version=6 strategy("Previous Day 50% - 15M Backtest", overlay=…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 05 Sep 2026, 05:07 PM IST
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Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “lookahead_on) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // 50% LEVEL //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ level50 = (prevHigh + prevLow) / 2 //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━”
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Previous-day high/low 50% midpoint revisit on 15-minute confirmation; entry when price crosses the 50% level with bullish/bearish candle confirmation. We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).
The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.
Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1715 | 47% | -0.21R | -0.26% |
| 2019 | 3467 | 50% | -0.22R | -0.21% |
| 2020 | 3227 | 48% | -0.05R | -0.11% |
| 2021 | 3380 | 49% | -0.30R | -0.33% |
| 2022 | 3842 | 58% | -0.06R | -0.10% |
| 2023 | 3642 | 41% | -0.41R | -0.34% |
| 2024 | 3521 | 42% | -0.37R | -0.34% |
| 2025 | 4033 | 49% | -0.30R | -0.26% |
| 2026 | 1631 | 56% | -0.15R | -0.17% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 188 | 52% | -0.1% | +6% | -16% | +6% |
| 2 | ████████ | 179 | 49% | -0.3% | +7% | -47% | +5% |
| 3 | ████████ | 192 | 53% | -0.1% | +6% | -13% | +4% |
| 4 | ████████ | 56 | 57% | -0.3% | +2% | -15% | +4% |
| 5 | ████████ | 189 | 48% | -0.2% | +10% | -46% | +4% |
| 6 | ████████ | 192 | 42% | -0.3% | +9% | -59% | +4% |
| 7 | ████████ | 150 | 43% | -0.5% | +4% | -76% | +4% |
| 8 | IDFCFIRSTB free peek | 179 | 53% | -0.0% | +11% | -8% | +3% |
| 9 | ████████ | 182 | 52% | -0.1% | +9% | -10% | +3% |
| 10 | ████████ | 178 | 54% | -0.1% | +3% | -9% | +2% |
| 11 | ████████ | 192 | 51% | -0.1% | +7% | -14% | +2% |
| 12 | ████████ | 105 | 51% | -0.2% | +5% | -22% | +2% |
| 13 | ████████ | 187 | 50% | -0.2% | +3% | -39% | +2% |
| 14 | ████████ | 175 | 49% | -0.2% | +3% | -40% | +2% |
| 15 | ████████ | 188 | 49% | -0.2% | +4% | -44% | +2% |
| 16 | ████████ | 170 | 50% | -0.3% | +3% | -46% | +2% |
| 17 | ████████ | 179 | 51% | -0.3% | +5% | -46% | +2% |
| 18 | ████████ | 183 | 50% | -0.3% | +6% | -47% | +2% |
| 19 | ████████ | 165 | 45% | -0.3% | +2% | -49% | +2% |
| 20 | ████████ | 188 | 49% | -0.3% | +3% | -51% | +2% |
| 21 | ████████ | 190 | 50% | -0.4% | +3% | -70% | -13% |
| 22 | ████████ | 186 | 42% | -0.3% | +10% | -60% | -9% |
| 23 | ████████ | 188 | 47% | -0.3% | +3% | -56% | -9% |
| 24 | ████████ | 186 | 53% | -0.1% | +13% | -25% | -9% |
| 25 | ████████ | 188 | 43% | -0.3% | +8% | -48% | -8% |
| 26 | ████████ | 183 | 50% | -0.2% | +11% | -37% | -8% |
| 27 | ████████ | 180 | 48% | -0.2% | +7% | -32% | -8% |
| 28 | ████████ | 185 | 43% | -0.4% | +3% | -73% | -7% |
| 29 | ████████ | 151 | 48% | -0.3% | +3% | -48% | -7% |
| 30 | ████████ | 206 | 44% | -0.2% | +6% | -43% | -7% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -76% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 245 | 36% | -0.52R | -0.19% |
| BANKNIFTY | 257 | 45% | -0.42R | -0.18% |
Full transcript (320 words)
//@version=6 strategy("Previous Day 50% - 15M Backtest", overlay=true, pyramiding=0, process_orders_on_close=true, initial_capital=100000, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.03) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // SETTINGS //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ rr = input.float(2.0, "Risk / Reward", minval=1.0, step=0.5) useConfirmation = input.bool(true, "15M Confirmation Candle") oneTradePerDay = input.bool(true, "Only 1 Trade Per Day") //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // PREVIOUS DAY HIGH / LOW //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ prevHigh = request.security( syminfo.tickerid, "D", high[1], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on) prevLow = request.security( syminfo.tickerid, "D", low[1], lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // 50% LEVEL //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ level50 = (prevHigh + prevLow) / 2 //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // DRAW LEVELS //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ plot(prevHigh, "Previous Day High", color=color.green, linewidth=2) plot(level50, "50% LEVEL", color=color.orange, linewidth=3) plot(prevLow, "Previous Day Low", color=color.red, linewidth=2) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // NEW DAY //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ newDay = ta.change(time("D")) != 0 var bool tradedToday = false if newDay tradedToday := false //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // 15 MIN CONFIRMATION //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // Previous candle crossed above 50% // Current candle confirms bullish buySetup = close[1] > level50[1] and open[1] <= level50[1] and close > level50 and close > open // Previous candle crossed below 50% // Current candle confirms bearish sellSetup = close[1] < level50[1] and open[1] >= level50[1] and close < level50 and close < open //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // BUY //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ canBuy = buySetup and strategy.position_size == 0 and (not oneTradePerDay or not tradedToday) if canBuy entryPrice = close stopPrice = low risk = entryPrice - stopPrice targetPrice = entryPrice + risk * rr if risk > 0 strategy.entry("BUY", strategy.long) strategy.exit("BUY EXIT", "BUY", stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice) tradedToday := true //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // SELL //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ canSell = sellSetup and strategy.position_size == 0 and (not oneTradePerDay or not tradedToday) if canSell entryPrice = close stopPrice = high risk = stopPrice - entryPrice targetPrice = entryPrice - risk * rr if risk > 0 strategy.entry("SELL", strategy.short) strategy.exit("SELL EXIT", "SELL", stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice) tradedToday := true //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // SIGNAL MARKERS //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ plotshape(canBuy, title="BUY", style=shape.labelup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, text="BUY", textcolor=color.white, size=size.small) plotshape(canSell, title="SELL", style=shape.labeldown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, text="SELL", textcolor=color.white, size=size.small) //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ // ALERTS //━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ alertcondition(canBuy, title="50% BUY", message="Previous Day 50% BUY confirmation") alertcondition(canSell, title="50% SELL", message="Previous Day 50% SELL confirmation")
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