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Your idea: //@version=6 strategy("NIFTY 30M EMA 20/50 + ADX + ATR", overlay=…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 01 Sep 2026, 09:45 AM IST
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.33R expectancy across 2,819 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -23% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: EMA 20/50 crossover on NIFTY 30M with ADX filter, ATR-based position sizing and risk/reward exits. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 2,819 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.28, expectancy +0.33R/trade (avg +1.60%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return+71.2%
CAGR+7.0%
Max drawdown-22.9%
Trades314 · 94 won
₹200,000 → ₹342,447
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +7% | +12% | +10% | +9% | -6% | +20% | +7% | -7% | +6% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 218 | 18% | -0.50R | -3.27% |
| 2019 | 382 | 27% | +0.05R | +0.12% |
| 2020 | 347 | 44% | +1.01R | +7.81% |
| 2021 | 248 | 37% | +0.26R | +1.19% |
| 2022 | 427 | 27% | -0.05R | -0.60% |
| 2023 | 348 | 50% | +1.77R | +7.13% |
| 2024 | 294 | 25% | +0.24R | +0.96% |
| 2025 | 376 | 28% | +0.01R | -0.28% |
| 2026 | 179 | 22% | -0.30R | -1.33% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 23 | 30% | +2.4% | +40% | +56% | +40% |
| 2 | ████████ | 19 | 32% | +5.1% | +45% | +97% | +37% |
| 3 | ████████ | 14 | 36% | +6.6% | +45% | +92% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 18 | 39% | +20.6% | +162% | +371% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 15 | 27% | +3.2% | +49% | +49% | +33% |
| 6 | ████████ | 17 | 12% | -4.1% | +32% | -69% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 18 | 44% | +8.6% | +59% | +155% | +30% |
| 8 | OFSS free peek | 14 | 29% | -0.1% | +24% | -2% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 13 | 62% | +8.4% | +40% | +109% | +21% |
| 10 | ████████ | 18 | 39% | +3.0% | +37% | +54% | +19% |
| 11 | ████████ | 10 | 30% | +3.0% | +28% | +30% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 6 | 33% | +2.1% | +17% | +13% | +11% |
| 13 | ████████ | 19 | 37% | +2.9% | +55% | +56% | +10% |
| 14 | ████████ | 21 | 33% | +2.2% | +34% | +47% | +10% |
| 15 | ████████ | 14 | 43% | +5.7% | +59% | +80% | +9% |
| 16 | ████████ | 17 | 35% | +8.6% | +122% | +147% | +8% |
| 17 | ████████ | 23 | 26% | -1.9% | +8% | -43% | +8% |
| 18 | ████████ | 21 | 29% | +0.6% | +56% | +12% | +6% |
| 19 | ████████ | 16 | 38% | -1.1% | +17% | -17% | +6% |
| 20 | ████████ | 19 | 32% | +1.5% | +51% | +29% | +5% |
| 21 | ████████ | 22 | 27% | +0.7% | +57% | +15% | -19% |
| 22 | ████████ | 20 | 45% | +5.0% | +47% | +100% | -17% |
| 23 | ████████ | 17 | 35% | +1.8% | +24% | +31% | -16% |
| 24 | ████████ | 20 | 30% | +2.6% | +51% | +52% | -16% |
| 25 | ████████ | 19 | 32% | +5.4% | +80% | +102% | -16% |
| 26 | ████████ | 23 | 26% | -1.0% | +25% | -23% | -15% |
| 27 | ████████ | 19 | 42% | +3.2% | +50% | +60% | -14% |
| 28 | ████████ | 17 | 29% | -0.8% | +25% | -13% | -12% |
| 29 | ████████ | 9 | 22% | -1.3% | +25% | -12% | -12% |
| 30 | ████████ | 19 | 37% | +0.2% | +19% | +4% | -12% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -69% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 17 | 59% | +1.40R | +2.22% |
| BANKNIFTY | 23 | 52% | +0.85R | +2.81% |
Full transcript (240 words)
//@version=6 strategy("NIFTY 30M EMA 20/50 + ADX + ATR", overlay=true, initial_capital=10000, currency=currency.INR, pyramiding=0, process_orders_on_close=true) // ===== SETTINGS ===== fastLen = input.int(20, "Fast EMA") slowLen = input.int(50, "Slow EMA") adxLen = input.int(14, "ADX Length") adxMin = input.float(25, "Minimum ADX") atrLen = input.int(14, "ATR Length") atrSL = input.float(1.0, "ATR Stop Multiplier") riskPercent = input.float(0.5, "Risk % per Trade") rr = input.float(2.0, "Risk/Reward") // ===== EMA ===== ema20 = ta.ema(close, fastLen) ema50 = ta.ema(close, slowLen) plot(ema20, title="EMA 20") plot(ema50, title="EMA 50") // ===== ADX ===== [plusDI, minusDI, adx] = ta.dmi(adxLen, adxLen) // ===== ATR ===== atr = ta.atr(atrLen) // ===== TREND CONDITIONS ===== longCondition = ta.crossover(ema20, ema50) and adx > adxMin and plusDI > minusDI shortCondition = ta.crossunder(ema20, ema50) and adx > adxMin and minusDI > plusDI // ===== POSITION SIZE ===== riskAmount = strategy.equity * riskPercent / 100 stopDistance = atr * atrSL qty = stopDistance > 0 ? riskAmount / stopDistance : 0 // ===== BUY ===== if longCondition and strategy.position_size == 0 strategy.entry("BUY", strategy.long, qty=qty) // ===== SELL ===== if shortCondition and strategy.position_size == 0 strategy.entry("SELL", strategy.short, qty=qty) // ===== BUY EXIT ===== if strategy.position_size > 0 longSL = strategy.position_avg_price - atr * atrSL longTP = strategy.position_avg_price + atr * atrSL * rr strategy.exit( "BUY EXIT", from_entry="BUY", stop=longSL, limit=longTP) // ===== SELL EXIT ===== if strategy.position_size < 0 shortSL = strategy.position_avg_price + atr * atrSL shortTP = strategy.position_avg_price - atr * atrSL * rr strategy.exit( "SELL EXIT", from_entry="SELL", stop=shortSL, limit=shortTP)
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