Your idea: Use daily bars on your standard Indian large/mid-cap equity universe…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.50R expectancy across 5,116 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.6 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 2 of 8 tested years were negative (2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -34% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 200-day breakout with 50/200-EMA uptrend filter; exit on 50-day low breach. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 5,116 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.59, expectancy +0.50R/trade (avg +2.68%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (75% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +11% | +33% | +24% | -16% | +24% | +11% | -3% | +0% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 310 | 27% | +0.20R | +2.48% |
| 2020 | 554 | 37% | +0.88R | +6.42% |
| 2021 | 1125 | 35% | +0.53R | +3.28% |
| 2022 | 386 | 26% | -0.02R | -0.39% |
| 2023 | 977 | 42% | +1.40R | +6.20% |
| 2024 | 1108 | 27% | +0.08R | +0.07% |
| 2025 | 398 | 31% | +0.26R | +0.90% |
| 2026 | 258 | 20% | -0.50R | -2.46% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 36 | 36% | +13.4% | +125% | +482% | +89% |
| 2 | ████████ | 39 | 56% | +36.3% | +181% | +1415% | +34% |
| 3 | ████████ | 39 | 31% | -1.4% | +21% | -55% | +23% |
| 4 | ████████ | 37 | 41% | +7.0% | +59% | +258% | +18% |
| 5 | ████████ | 45 | 36% | +4.8% | +52% | +214% | +17% |
| 6 | ████████ | 50 | 42% | +10.0% | +114% | +502% | +10% |
| 7 | ████████ | 41 | 39% | +4.7% | +52% | +194% | +10% |
| 8 | ADANIPORTS free peek | 38 | 47% | +11.7% | +65% | +444% | +9% |
| 9 | ████████ | 55 | 53% | +24.9% | +124% | +1367% | +8% |
| 10 | ████████ | 25 | 48% | +6.3% | +54% | +157% | +6% |
| 11 | ████████ | 22 | 36% | +2.6% | +43% | +57% | +5% |
| 12 | ████████ | 53 | 42% | +3.1% | +29% | +162% | +3% |
| 13 | ████████ | 44 | 45% | +3.8% | +54% | +167% | +1% |
| 14 | ████████ | 35 | 54% | +20.9% | +70% | +731% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 63 | 51% | +9.8% | +75% | +618% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 58 | 43% | +10.3% | +78% | +597% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 56 | 41% | +8.7% | +51% | +487% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 32 | 47% | +12.2% | +52% | +391% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 28 | 54% | +11.9% | +51% | +334% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 42 | 40% | +6.6% | +51% | +276% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 40 | 25% | -0.0% | +31% | -1% | -35% |
| 22 | ████████ | 43 | 23% | -0.8% | +41% | -35% | -32% |
| 23 | ████████ | 46 | 39% | +1.9% | +45% | +85% | -32% |
| 24 | ████████ | 30 | 27% | +0.5% | +55% | +15% | -29% |
| 25 | ████████ | 37 | 27% | -1.3% | +21% | -49% | -28% |
| 26 | ████████ | 48 | 40% | +5.9% | +46% | +286% | -28% |
| 27 | ████████ | 33 | 30% | +4.1% | +49% | +135% | -27% |
| 28 | ████████ | 39 | 28% | +1.5% | +31% | +58% | -26% |
| 29 | ████████ | 45 | 33% | +6.7% | +59% | +302% | -26% |
| 30 | ████████ | 31 | 39% | +4.2% | +46% | +129% | -25% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 87 | 28% | +0.17R | +0.27% |
| BANKNIFTY | 68 | 15% | -0.53R | -1.71% |
Full transcript (89 words)
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