Your idea: Use daily bars on your standard Indian large/mid-cap equity universe…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.46R expectancy across 6,640 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.5 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -25% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Long-only 100-day high breakout strategy with 20-day low exit on Indian equities. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,640 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.51, expectancy +0.46R/trade (avg +2.48%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +23% | +29% | +35% | -12% | +11% | +15% | -9% | +1% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 46 | 9% | -0.86R | -5.59% |
| 2019 | 575 | 29% | +0.17R | +1.46% |
| 2020 | 891 | 38% | +0.96R | +6.72% |
| 2021 | 1190 | 34% | +0.50R | +3.12% |
| 2022 | 593 | 25% | -0.03R | -0.38% |
| 2023 | 1212 | 41% | +1.21R | +5.32% |
| 2024 | 1196 | 27% | +0.13R | +0.37% |
| 2025 | 632 | 29% | +0.09R | +0.07% |
| 2026 | 305 | 22% | -0.36R | -1.63% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 32 | 53% | +9.5% | +72% | +304% | +105% |
| 2 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +9.8% | +125% | +420% | +89% |
| 3 | ████████ | 55 | 47% | +4.5% | +54% | +246% | +84% |
| 4 | ████████ | 44 | 55% | +33.5% | +181% | +1472% | +66% |
| 5 | ████████ | 61 | 57% | +26.7% | +124% | +1631% | +65% |
| 6 | ████████ | 28 | 43% | +7.8% | +52% | +219% | +24% |
| 7 | ████████ | 47 | 30% | -1.4% | +21% | -67% | +23% |
| 8 | VEDL free peek | 45 | 33% | +4.4% | +59% | +199% | +18% |
| 9 | ████████ | 54 | 39% | +10.1% | +176% | +547% | +17% |
| 10 | ████████ | 50 | 34% | +4.3% | +52% | +217% | +17% |
| 11 | ████████ | 48 | 33% | +2.8% | +52% | +135% | +10% |
| 12 | ████████ | 46 | 41% | +8.8% | +65% | +407% | +9% |
| 13 | ████████ | 33 | 42% | +3.4% | +82% | +113% | +6% |
| 14 | ████████ | 57 | 44% | +4.3% | +36% | +246% | +3% |
| 15 | ████████ | 50 | 44% | +13.7% | +70% | +685% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 68 | 51% | +9.4% | +75% | +638% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 68 | 40% | +8.8% | +78% | +598% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 43 | 44% | +12.5% | +54% | +539% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 60 | 42% | +8.6% | +51% | +516% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 51 | 39% | +7.7% | +70% | +393% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 31 | 19% | -2.5% | +22% | -77% | -36% |
| 22 | ████████ | 52 | 31% | +3.7% | +69% | +193% | -35% |
| 23 | ████████ | 51 | 22% | -1.4% | +41% | -69% | -32% |
| 24 | ████████ | 50 | 42% | +4.5% | +88% | +223% | -32% |
| 25 | ████████ | 44 | 18% | -1.6% | +55% | -72% | -29% |
| 26 | ████████ | 49 | 33% | +5.3% | +69% | +257% | -29% |
| 27 | ████████ | 47 | 30% | -0.4% | +21% | -19% | -28% |
| 28 | ████████ | 62 | 39% | +4.6% | +46% | +284% | -28% |
| 29 | ████████ | 49 | 24% | +2.2% | +52% | +110% | -27% |
| 30 | ████████ | 46 | 26% | +0.7% | +31% | +32% | -26% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 121 | 27% | +0.11R | +0.08% |
| BANKNIFTY | 86 | 23% | -0.13R | -0.38% |
Full transcript (88 words)
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