Your idea: Universe: NIFTY monthly + weekly expiries (trade roughly weekly) Entr… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Universe: NIFTY monthly + weekly expiries (trade roughly weekly) Entr…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 25 Sep 2026, 10:38 AM IST
★★½☆☆ 2.5 / 5

Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✓ Net +228.6% on capital over the tested window (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 348 trades)
  • ✕ Wins 77% of the time — but the average loss (₹3,070) is 1.7× the average win (₹1,787). Classic short-premium shape: many small wins, rare big hits
  • ✕ Worst single trade ₹-13,867 — one bad move erases ~8 average wins
  • ✕ Max drawdown -55% along the way — deep for a 'low-risk' pitch
  • ✕ Short sample (348 trades over 11 months) with no true market crash in the window — the tail event that hurts option sellers most is untested

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Options (selling)

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “Universe: NIFTY monthly + weekly expiries (trade roughly weekly) Entry: 10 calendar days before expiry Structure: Iron condor Short PE ~350-500 points below spo”

Verdict

Real option backtest. Reconstructed on actual NIFTY option premiums (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 348 weekly trades) — legs: sell 1x PE-400 + buy 1x PE-600 + sell 1x CE+400 + buy 1x CE+600, with real multi-leg costs.

Net +228.6% on ₹1L (+20.0%/yr over 11.4 years) (positive), win 77%, avg win ₹1,787 / avg loss ₹-3,070 (avg loss BIGGER than avg win), max drawdown -55% (worst week ₹-13,867). High win-rate is the normal face of short options; the drawdown and the negative skew are the real risk that a short 'backtest' window hides.

Real premiums: minute-level history resampled to daily closes (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist).

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Month by month (real NIFTY option premiums · net P/L after costs, on ₹1,00,000)

MonthTradesWin %Net P/L
20152871% ₹+31,188
2016978% ₹+6,750
2018967% ₹+2,559
2019367% ₹+872
20203087% ₹+26,633
20215184% ₹+44,647
20225086% ₹+52,524
20235068% ₹+8,992
20244674% ₹-24,104
20255175% ₹+32,295
20262167% ₹+46,202
Full transcript (95 words)
Universe: NIFTY monthly + weekly expiries (trade roughly weekly) Entry: 10 calendar days before expiry Structure: Iron condor Short PE ~350-500 points below spot Short CE ~350-500 points above spot Long PE and long CE further out, wing width chosen so max loss ≈ 2× max profit Exit — whichever happens first: Profit reaches 50% of max profit, OR Loss reaches 1× max profit (i.e., you give back exactly what you could have made — tighter than the structural 2:1 max loss), OR Position reaches expiry with neither triggered Repeat for the next 10-DTE cycle

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.