Your idea: Trade with the trend (using super trend on the spot chart) only on Sen…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.26R across 7,628 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.1 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -25% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 9-EMA/15-EMA crossover on Sensex with Supertrend trend confirmation and candlestick pattern filters (hammer/dragonfly/long-leg doji). Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 7,628 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.13, expectancy +0.26R/trade (avg +1.37%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9% | -13% | +58% | +12% | -8% | +27% | -6% | -1% | -4% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 443 | 30% | -0.11R | -0.97% |
| 2019 | 979 | 31% | +0.07R | +0.26% |
| 2020 | 850 | 44% | +0.80R | +6.34% |
| 2021 | 916 | 37% | +0.38R | +2.23% |
| 2022 | 957 | 32% | +0.11R | +0.48% |
| 2023 | 967 | 41% | +0.90R | +3.83% |
| 2024 | 978 | 29% | +0.07R | +0.22% |
| 2025 | 1096 | 27% | -0.06R | -0.66% |
| 2026 | 442 | 26% | -0.21R | -1.03% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 40 | 45% | +14.3% | +162% | +571% | +46% |
| 2 | ████████ | 52 | 29% | +0.9% | +46% | +45% | +40% |
| 3 | ████████ | 46 | 39% | +10.6% | +168% | +486% | +39% |
| 4 | ████████ | 37 | 41% | +5.3% | +92% | +195% | +39% |
| 5 | ████████ | 47 | 32% | +3.7% | +86% | +176% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 45 | 42% | +5.1% | +74% | +231% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 57 | 32% | +4.9% | +130% | +281% | +30% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 20 | 15% | -1.8% | +22% | -37% | +29% |
| 9 | ████████ | 41 | 49% | +11.9% | +146% | +487% | +25% |
| 10 | ████████ | 50 | 36% | +2.3% | +71% | +115% | +24% |
| 11 | ████████ | 38 | 50% | +5.6% | +55% | +212% | +19% |
| 12 | ████████ | 35 | 26% | +2.0% | +66% | +69% | +16% |
| 13 | ████████ | 46 | 37% | +1.5% | +56% | +68% | +16% |
| 14 | ████████ | 52 | 35% | +0.8% | +41% | +39% | +16% |
| 15 | ████████ | 54 | 33% | +1.2% | +43% | +67% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 47 | 36% | +4.3% | +62% | +201% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 54 | 30% | +1.8% | +74% | +96% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 51 | 31% | +1.9% | +69% | +95% | +13% |
| 19 | ████████ | 54 | 28% | +0.5% | +50% | +27% | +13% |
| 20 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +2.0% | +52% | +86% | +12% |
| 21 | ████████ | 56 | 38% | +1.1% | +27% | +60% | -27% |
| 22 | ████████ | 48 | 31% | +0.7% | +46% | +34% | -24% |
| 23 | ████████ | 53 | 28% | +1.7% | +39% | +91% | -22% |
| 24 | ████████ | 56 | 30% | -0.3% | +46% | -14% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 49 | 31% | +1.9% | +71% | +92% | -20% |
| 26 | ████████ | 54 | 28% | -0.3% | +21% | -16% | -19% |
| 27 | ████████ | 47 | 26% | +0.3% | +45% | +14% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 40 | 38% | +1.2% | +33% | +49% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 52 | 33% | +1.1% | +34% | +55% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 56 | 30% | -0.3% | +37% | -17% | -18% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 67 | 33% | +0.29R | +0.47% |
| BANKNIFTY | 66 | 35% | +0.20R | +0.54% |
Full transcript (54 words)
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