Your idea: Trade nifty on a 5 minute candle chart, go long when 9 Ema closes abo…
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.03R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 29% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -63% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: 9-EMA trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 28,620 trades, win 29%, payoff 2.77, expectancy +0.03R/trade (avg -0.05%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-30 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -23% | -36% | +30% | +14% | -20% | +9% | -5% | -19% | -9% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1684 | 26% | -0.05R | -0.59% |
| 2019 | 3561 | 27% | -0.04R | -0.45% |
| 2020 | 3442 | 34% | +0.17R | +1.04% |
| 2021 | 3551 | 31% | +0.11R | +0.40% |
| 2022 | 3544 | 28% | -0.01R | -0.28% |
| 2023 | 3632 | 31% | +0.14R | +0.38% |
| 2024 | 3738 | 28% | -0.00R | -0.26% |
| 2025 | 4002 | 26% | -0.07R | -0.63% |
| 2026 | 1466 | 24% | -0.09R | -0.55% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 148 | 37% | +1.2% | +36% | +178% | +48% |
| 2 | ████████ | 165 | 31% | +4.4% | +209% | +724% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 181 | 28% | +0.5% | +59% | +85% | +35% |
| 4 | ████████ | 159 | 31% | +2.2% | +72% | +346% | +33% |
| 5 | ████████ | 177 | 34% | +2.7% | +158% | +472% | +31% |
| 6 | ████████ | 195 | 31% | +0.4% | +42% | +73% | +27% |
| 7 | ████████ | 183 | 25% | +1.6% | +85% | +296% | +26% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 64 | 16% | -1.3% | +18% | -85% | +26% |
| 9 | ████████ | 179 | 26% | +2.0% | +119% | +349% | +25% |
| 10 | ████████ | 189 | 29% | +0.4% | +27% | +79% | +20% |
| 11 | ████████ | 161 | 35% | +1.2% | +44% | +188% | +15% |
| 12 | ████████ | 175 | 29% | +0.7% | +48% | +126% | +15% |
| 13 | ████████ | 168 | 26% | +0.2% | +38% | +36% | +15% |
| 14 | ████████ | 190 | 24% | -0.1% | +67% | -25% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 173 | 31% | +0.3% | +40% | +54% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 189 | 26% | -0.5% | +34% | -89% | +14% |
| 17 | ████████ | 191 | 26% | -0.3% | +25% | -56% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 196 | 28% | -0.4% | +21% | -75% | +13% |
| 19 | ████████ | 165 | 24% | +0.1% | +26% | +10% | +12% |
| 20 | ████████ | 194 | 26% | -0.3% | +38% | -53% | +12% |
| 21 | ████████ | 190 | 29% | -0.2% | +37% | -46% | -37% |
| 22 | ████████ | 185 | 25% | -0.4% | +28% | -69% | -36% |
| 23 | ████████ | 177 | 31% | +0.3% | +33% | +61% | -35% |
| 24 | ████████ | 195 | 23% | -0.4% | +29% | -72% | -34% |
| 25 | ████████ | 180 | 26% | -0.3% | +22% | -57% | -34% |
| 26 | ████████ | 65 | 28% | -0.2% | +17% | -16% | -29% |
| 27 | ████████ | 183 | 30% | +0.1% | +25% | +11% | -28% |
| 28 | ████████ | 199 | 21% | -0.4% | +35% | -87% | -27% |
| 29 | ████████ | 104 | 32% | -0.1% | +20% | -8% | -27% |
| 30 | ████████ | 179 | 31% | +0.0% | +29% | +4% | -25% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 246 | 30% | -0.02R | -0.33% |
| BANKNIFTY | 243 | 31% | +0.01R | -0.18% |
Full transcript (24 words)
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