Your idea: Timeframe – 3 Mins • Wait for price below EMA 200 & RSI(14) > 60 • S…
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.07R per trade across 14,019 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.80 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ Only 43% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -100% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Short mean-reversion strategy: sell when price falls below EMA-200 with RSI(14) > 60, scale out on partial TP, trail remainder. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 14,019 trades, win 43%, payoff 0.80, expectancy -0.07R/trade (avg -0.64%/trade).
This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 0% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -26% | -44% | -44% | -40% | -61% | -87% | -94% | -42% | +0% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 744 | 43% | -0.07R | -0.70% |
| 2019 | 1664 | 43% | -0.07R | -0.64% |
| 2020 | 1871 | 46% | -0.03R | -0.46% |
| 2021 | 1925 | 41% | -0.08R | -0.75% |
| 2022 | 1619 | 42% | -0.08R | -0.74% |
| 2023 | 1836 | 46% | -0.04R | -0.49% |
| 2024 | 1979 | 45% | -0.05R | -0.51% |
| 2025 | 1684 | 40% | -0.10R | -0.78% |
| 2026 | 697 | 39% | -0.14R | -1.00% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 90 | 42% | +0.1% | +26% | +8% | +19% |
| 2 | ████████ | 47 | 30% | -0.3% | +15% | -14% | +15% |
| 3 | ████████ | 95 | 39% | -0.4% | +8% | -38% | +8% |
| 4 | ████████ | 94 | 38% | -0.6% | +5% | -56% | +6% |
| 5 | ████████ | 102 | 32% | -0.9% | +7% | -96% | +6% |
| 6 | ████████ | 86 | 31% | -0.8% | +5% | -68% | +5% |
| 7 | ████████ | 96 | 42% | -0.4% | +6% | -38% | +4% |
| 8 | UPL free peek | 98 | 37% | -0.6% | +6% | -60% | +4% |
| 9 | ████████ | 92 | 40% | -0.2% | +9% | -22% | +3% |
| 10 | ████████ | 119 | 36% | -0.4% | +6% | -48% | +3% |
| 11 | ████████ | 86 | 48% | -0.3% | +10% | -28% | +2% |
| 12 | ████████ | 97 | 42% | -0.5% | +5% | -47% | +2% |
| 13 | ████████ | 97 | 32% | -0.6% | +5% | -55% | +2% |
| 14 | ████████ | 89 | 30% | -0.6% | +8% | -55% | +2% |
| 15 | ████████ | 24 | 42% | -0.4% | +7% | -10% | +1% |
| 16 | ████████ | 95 | 52% | -0.3% | +6% | -28% | +1% |
| 17 | ████████ | 92 | 39% | -0.3% | +8% | -32% | +1% |
| 18 | ████████ | 90 | 37% | -0.4% | +5% | -38% | +1% |
| 19 | ████████ | 98 | 35% | -0.6% | +5% | -54% | +1% |
| 20 | ████████ | 79 | 35% | -0.7% | +5% | -58% | +1% |
| 21 | ████████ | 98 | 29% | -1.1% | +5% | -108% | -18% |
| 22 | ████████ | 101 | 50% | -0.1% | +6% | -14% | -18% |
| 23 | ████████ | 82 | 38% | -0.9% | +8% | -76% | -16% |
| 24 | ████████ | 99 | 36% | -0.8% | +8% | -75% | -16% |
| 25 | ████████ | 101 | 40% | -0.7% | +6% | -73% | -15% |
| 26 | ████████ | 84 | 36% | -0.7% | +7% | -58% | -15% |
| 27 | ████████ | 95 | 45% | -0.4% | +9% | -37% | -15% |
| 28 | ████████ | 101 | 34% | -0.8% | +6% | -82% | -14% |
| 29 | ████████ | 75 | 40% | -1.1% | +8% | -83% | -13% |
| 30 | ████████ | 94 | 32% | -0.8% | +3% | -74% | -13% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 127 | 30% | -0.17R | -0.58% |
| BANKNIFTY | 135 | 33% | -0.20R | -0.78% |
Full transcript (54 words)
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