Your idea: this is in gold tht in 1 hour stertegy that market consolditading kre…
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Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.07R across 26,994 trades
- ✕ Only 37% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2024, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -38% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 1-hour breakout strategy on gold: wait for 4-hour consolidation, enter on hourly candle close above consolidation high, target 1:2 risk-reward, works both long and short. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 26,994 trades, win 37%, payoff 2.00, expectancy +0.07R/trade (avg +0.20%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-09-17 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -23% | +1% | +83% | +31% | -9% | +14% | -11% | -1% | -9% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1448 | 32% | -0.15R | -1.13% |
| 2019 | 2897 | 36% | -0.04R | -0.36% |
| 2020 | 3394 | 43% | +0.31R | +2.23% |
| 2021 | 3463 | 39% | +0.18R | +0.77% |
| 2022 | 3416 | 37% | +0.03R | -0.02% |
| 2023 | 3800 | 42% | +0.29R | +1.02% |
| 2024 | 3654 | 33% | -0.02R | -0.45% |
| 2025 | 3475 | 32% | -0.10R | -0.82% |
| 2026 | 1447 | 29% | -0.19R | -1.02% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 178 | 43% | +1.5% | +33% | +270% | +106% |
| 2 | ████████ | 150 | 50% | +13.8% | +209% | +2070% | +90% |
| 3 | ████████ | 134 | 51% | +7.8% | +104% | +1046% | +90% |
| 4 | ████████ | 161 | 27% | +0.7% | +108% | +111% | +89% |
| 5 | ████████ | 184 | 36% | +0.6% | +52% | +102% | +71% |
| 6 | ████████ | 57 | 28% | -1.4% | +21% | -81% | +67% |
| 7 | ████████ | 162 | 38% | +3.8% | +79% | +616% | +63% |
| 8 | NESTLEIND free peek | 172 | 31% | -0.8% | +20% | -138% | +62% |
| 9 | ████████ | 174 | 45% | +5.3% | +72% | +914% | +40% |
| 10 | ████████ | 183 | 44% | +1.5% | +34% | +273% | +38% |
| 11 | ████████ | 163 | 33% | -0.4% | +21% | -66% | +37% |
| 12 | ████████ | 174 | 39% | +0.5% | +46% | +86% | +29% |
| 13 | ████████ | 167 | 47% | +5.2% | +146% | +874% | +28% |
| 14 | ████████ | 178 | 35% | -0.0% | +24% | +0% | +28% |
| 15 | ████████ | 189 | 37% | +0.5% | +37% | +103% | +21% |
| 16 | ████████ | 97 | 30% | -0.5% | +24% | -46% | +21% |
| 17 | ████████ | 187 | 37% | +0.6% | +29% | +108% | +15% |
| 18 | ████████ | 154 | 40% | +0.1% | +34% | +11% | +15% |
| 19 | ████████ | 170 | 36% | -0.1% | +31% | -11% | +15% |
| 20 | ████████ | 168 | 37% | +0.2% | +26% | +35% | +13% |
| 21 | ████████ | 192 | 32% | -0.8% | +51% | -150% | -58% |
| 22 | ████████ | 188 | 38% | +0.3% | +32% | +55% | -49% |
| 23 | ████████ | 188 | 31% | -0.8% | +28% | -156% | -48% |
| 24 | ████████ | 173 | 33% | -1.2% | +34% | -203% | -44% |
| 25 | ████████ | 150 | 39% | +0.0% | +39% | +3% | -44% |
| 26 | ████████ | 188 | 37% | -0.1% | +27% | -20% | -43% |
| 27 | ████████ | 176 | 36% | +1.1% | +52% | +197% | -43% |
| 28 | ████████ | 182 | 36% | -0.1% | +34% | -23% | -41% |
| 29 | ████████ | 172 | 34% | -0.1% | +20% | -23% | -37% |
| 30 | ████████ | 100 | 32% | -1.3% | +28% | -132% | -35% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 301 | 39% | +0.07R | -0.16% |
| BANKNIFTY | 275 | 36% | -0.08R | -0.36% |
Full transcript (49 words)
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