Your idea: The Clean-Execution Nifty Scalping Framework 1. The One-Direction Rule…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.
1,884 trades on ₹1L: net -120.2% over 12 years (-10.0%/yr, loses money), win 39%, payoff 1.46 (avg win ₹2,826 / avg loss ₹-1,941), max drawdown -188%, worst trade ₹-8,876. 2015: ₹+3,115. 2016: ₹-15,771. 2017: ₹-29,096. 2018: ₹+5,666. 2019: ₹+19,286. 2020: ₹+7,433. 2021: ₹+66,552. 2022: ₹-75,593. 2023: ₹-78,053. 2024: ₹+56,514. 2025: ₹-56,367. 2026: ₹-23,924.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 67 | 45% | ₹+3,115 |
| 2016 | 118 | 41% | ₹-15,771 |
| 2017 | 145 | 40% | ₹-29,096 |
| 2018 | 139 | 42% | ₹+5,666 |
| 2019 | 145 | 44% | ₹+19,286 |
| 2020 | 158 | 37% | ₹+7,433 |
| 2021 | 244 | 42% | ₹+66,552 |
| 2022 | 192 | 35% | ₹-75,593 |
| 2023 | 187 | 31% | ₹-78,053 |
| 2024 | 154 | 40% | ₹+56,514 |
| 2025 | 232 | 39% | ₹-56,367 |
| 2026 | 103 | 41% | ₹-23,924 |
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