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Your idea: The "3-Touch" Fair Value Range Strategy (Patrick Nill) Patrick Nill…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 24 Oct 2026, 02:12 PM IST
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for
the forex market.
We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully —
every result below is on Indian market data.
Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.04R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 37% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2024, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -55% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Multi-touch consolidation breakout with retest confirmation and tight limit-order risk management on currency pairs. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 30,401 trades, win 37%, payoff 1.93, expectancy +0.04R/trade (avg +0.07%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return+32.0%
CAGR+3.6%
Max drawdown-54.9%
Trades870 · 308 won
₹200,000 → ₹264,069
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20% | -28% | +73% | +31% | -9% | +33% | -4% | -2% | -11% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1665 | 33% | -0.12R | -0.89% |
| 2019 | 3291 | 35% | -0.06R | -0.49% |
| 2020 | 3777 | 43% | +0.25R | +1.74% |
| 2021 | 3878 | 40% | +0.17R | +0.70% |
| 2022 | 3829 | 37% | +0.02R | -0.12% |
| 2023 | 4229 | 41% | +0.22R | +0.72% |
| 2024 | 4079 | 34% | -0.04R | -0.52% |
| 2025 | 3986 | 33% | -0.10R | -0.77% |
| 2026 | 1667 | 30% | -0.17R | -0.91% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 65 | 25% | -0.7% | +31% | -42% | +113% |
| 2 | ████████ | 169 | 51% | +12.2% | +209% | +2057% | +102% |
| 3 | ████████ | 156 | 48% | +6.5% | +104% | +1012% | +100% |
| 4 | ████████ | 183 | 25% | -0.3% | +51% | -63% | +91% |
| 5 | ████████ | 204 | 36% | +1.0% | +56% | +201% | +65% |
| 6 | ████████ | 198 | 44% | +1.6% | +37% | +318% | +64% |
| 7 | ████████ | 199 | 29% | -0.8% | +20% | -167% | +60% |
| 8 | DEEPAKNTR free peek | 187 | 39% | +0.5% | +46% | +90% | +56% |
| 9 | ████████ | 184 | 37% | +2.7% | +91% | +491% | +52% |
| 10 | ████████ | 192 | 45% | +5.6% | +84% | +1083% | +44% |
| 11 | ████████ | 185 | 34% | -0.2% | +21% | -43% | +36% |
| 12 | ████████ | 209 | 42% | +1.1% | +34% | +226% | +31% |
| 13 | ████████ | 207 | 38% | -0.1% | +23% | -20% | +29% |
| 14 | ████████ | 186 | 48% | +5.0% | +159% | +936% | +27% |
| 15 | ████████ | 227 | 39% | +0.4% | +39% | +80% | +19% |
| 16 | ████████ | 189 | 36% | +0.1% | +26% | +26% | +18% |
| 17 | ████████ | 194 | 37% | +0.3% | +24% | +56% | +15% |
| 18 | ████████ | 212 | 39% | +1.5% | +76% | +314% | +10% |
| 19 | ████████ | 209 | 37% | +0.2% | +29% | +39% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 209 | 35% | -0.5% | +29% | -105% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 216 | 39% | +0.1% | +20% | +14% | -56% |
| 22 | ████████ | 222 | 32% | -0.4% | +43% | -84% | -48% |
| 23 | ████████ | 194 | 34% | +0.9% | +53% | +172% | -48% |
| 24 | ████████ | 199 | 35% | -0.2% | +22% | -43% | -46% |
| 25 | ████████ | 208 | 34% | -0.1% | +28% | -30% | -43% |
| 26 | ████████ | 214 | 31% | -0.6% | +34% | -133% | -42% |
| 27 | ████████ | 206 | 28% | -1.2% | +43% | -252% | -40% |
| 28 | ████████ | 216 | 36% | -0.3% | +21% | -67% | -40% |
| 29 | ████████ | 209 | 39% | -0.1% | +18% | -15% | -38% |
| 30 | ████████ | 154 | 34% | -1.0% | +28% | -149% | -37% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -252% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 342 | 39% | -0.01R | -0.32% |
| BANKNIFTY | 309 | 37% | -0.06R | -0.36% |
Full transcript (137 words)
The "3-Touch" Fair Value Range Strategy (Patrick Nill) Patrick Nill, a 12-time Robbins World Cup winner who leads the 2026 Forex standings, relies on extreme patience and structural filters to avoid trap zones. • The Setup: Map a highly visible, tightly consolidated price range on a currency pair or index. • The Trigger: Instead of trading the first breakout, he waits for a third touch or confirmation at the extreme edge of the zone. For example, in a bullish breakout, the price must break out, dip back cleanly to test the boundary as support, and then have the subsequent candle close higher than the initial breakout candle. • Risk Profile: He utilizes limit orders exclusively at the lower or upper extremes to keep stop-losses incredibly tight, achieving skewed asymmetric payouts often ranging from 3:1 up to 8:1.
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