Your idea: The 10% opening-range breakout (NIFTY, gap-and-go bot) • Opening range… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: The 10% opening-range breakout (NIFTY, gap-and-go bot) • Opening range…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 28 Oct 2026, 03:40 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Opening range

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

1,884 trades on ₹1L: net -120.2% over 12 years (-10.0%/yr, loses money), win 39%, payoff 1.46 (avg win ₹2,826 / avg loss ₹-1,941), max drawdown -188%, worst trade ₹-8,876. 2015: ₹+3,115. 2016: ₹-15,771. 2017: ₹-29,096. 2018: ₹+5,666. 2019: ₹+19,286. 2020: ₹+7,433. 2021: ₹+66,552. 2022: ₹-75,593. 2023: ₹-78,053. 2024: ₹+56,514. 2025: ₹-56,367. 2026: ₹-23,924.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156745% ₹+3,115
201611841% ₹-15,771
201714540% ₹-29,096
201813942% ₹+5,666
201914544% ₹+19,286
202015837% ₹+7,433
202124442% ₹+66,552
202219235% ₹-75,593
202318731% ₹-78,053
202415440% ₹+56,514
202523239% ₹-56,367
202610341% ₹-23,924
Full transcript (201 words)
The 10% opening-range breakout (NIFTY, gap-and-go bot) • Opening range (OR): the highest and lowest 1-minute CLOSING prices from 09:15 to 09:45, both minutes included (31 bars). Candle highs and lows are not used. • Width (W): OR high minus OR low. • Trigger levels: – Upside: OR high + 0.10 × W – Downside: OR low − 0.10 × W – Example: if the OR is 24,000–24,100, W is 100. A CE triggers when a 1-minute close goes above 24,110; a PE triggers below 23,990. • When it checks: 1-minute closes from 09:46 to 12:00. • Direction: the gap sets it. Gap = NIFTY's 09:15 price compared with the previous day's 15:15 close. After a gap-up the bot only takes the upside break; after a gap-down, only the downside break. • When the gap-and-go bot stands down: – The opposite band breaks first ("opposite_first"). – At the moment of the break, NIFTY has already touched yesterday's 15:15 close earlier in the day ("filled" — the gap already closed). – Nothing breaks by 12:00 ("no_break"). • Entry: on the next 1-minute bar after the signal, buy the 150-point in-the-money weekly option (CE on an upside break, PE on a downside break).

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