Your idea: Style: Opposite of #1 Best for: Sideways/choppy days Instrument: Nifty… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Style: Opposite of #1 Best for: Sideways/choppy days Instrument: Nifty…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 05 Oct 2026, 10:18 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Futures VWAP

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

7,844 trades on ₹1L: net -612.7% over 12 years (-51.1%/yr, loses money), win 40%, payoff 1.38 (avg win ₹2,209 / avg loss ₹-1,606), max drawdown -696%, worst trade ₹-11,518. 2015: ₹-41,600. 2016: ₹-55,871. 2017: ₹-42,936. 2018: ₹-1,163. 2019: ₹-64,277. 2020: ₹-11,289. 2021: ₹-46,451. 2022: ₹-119,584. 2023: ₹-108,830. 2024: ₹-83,956. 2025: ₹-99,651. 2026: ₹+62,931.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
201530338% ₹-41,600
201653741% ₹-55,871
201760440% ₹-42,936
201857543% ₹-1,163
201964737% ₹-64,277
202063839% ₹-11,289
202196942% ₹-46,451
202272540% ₹-119,584
202377237% ₹-108,830
202468040% ₹-83,956
202599241% ₹-99,651
202640244% ₹+62,931
Full transcript (123 words)
Style: Opposite of #1 Best for: Sideways/choppy days Instrument: Nifty futures/spot + ATM options Here we're betting that an extended move returns toward VWAP. Bullish reversal Suppose: Nifty = 25,000 VWAP = 24,950 Nifty falls rapidly to 24,900, then: Price reaches an important support Selling slows 5-minute candle closes bullish Price starts moving back toward VWAP Buy ATM CE. Target: VWAP SL: Below the reversal low. Bearish reversal Nifty moves significantly above VWAP → reaches resistance → bearish reversal candle → buy ATM PE. Critical filter Don't take this when Nifty is strongly trending. For example: 9:30 → 10:00 → 10:30 and price continuously stays on one side of VWAP with strong candles. That's a trend day, so mean reversion can get destroyed.

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.