Your idea: Style: Directional Best for: Strong trend days Risk: Defined Setup… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Style: Directional Best for: Strong trend days Risk: Defined Setup…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 05 Oct 2026, 10:17 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 35% / target 65% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

1,945 trades on ₹1L: net -325.1% over 12 years (-27.1%/yr, loses money), win 39%, payoff 1.35 (avg win ₹3,036 / avg loss ₹-2,257), max drawdown -348%, worst trade ₹-12,141. 2015: ₹-10,580. 2016: ₹-31,021. 2017: ₹-33,174. 2018: ₹-5,448. 2019: ₹+1,389. 2020: ₹-1,579. 2021: ₹-63,849. 2022: ₹-23,875. 2023: ₹-87,821. 2024: ₹+60,244. 2025: ₹-61,970. 2026: ₹-67,417.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156742% ₹-10,580
201612640% ₹-31,021
201715337% ₹-33,174
201814643% ₹-5,448
201914842% ₹+1,389
202016442% ₹-1,579
202124736% ₹-63,849
202219444% ₹-23,875
202319033% ₹-87,821
202416041% ₹+60,244
202524439% ₹-61,970
202610640% ₹-67,417
Full transcript (85 words)
Style: Directional Best for: Strong trend days Risk: Defined Setup Mark Nifty's 9:15–9:30 high and low. Wait for a 5-minute candle close outside the range. Above high → bullish. Below low → bearish. Bullish example Nifty: 9:15–9:30 high = 25,050 Breakout at 25,070 Buy: 25,100 CE Sell 25,200 CE Bearish Buy: 25,000 PE Sell 24,900 PE SL: 30–40% of the debit paid Target: 50–80% of the debit Time exit: 2:30 PM The key is waiting for the candle close, rather than buying the first spike.

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.