Your idea: STRATEGY OVERVIEW: NIFTY 50 INTRADAY FUTURES (S1/R1 BREAKOUT) 1. TIM…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.31R expectancy across 3,872 trades
- ✕ Only 36% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -21% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “EXIT & TRAILING LOGIC: - Target 1 (+40 Points on Nifty Spot): * Book 50% profit (Exit 1 Lot).”
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: Supertrend trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,872 trades, win 36%, payoff 2.77, expectancy +0.31R/trade (avg +1.76%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-17 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +20% | +0% | +41% | +37% | +11% | +14% | +1% | -6% | +2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 249 | 32% | -0.21R | -1.52% |
| 2019 | 441 | 35% | +0.08R | +0.41% |
| 2020 | 409 | 53% | +1.18R | +10.33% |
| 2021 | 399 | 40% | +0.44R | +2.50% |
| 2022 | 574 | 29% | -0.05R | -0.60% |
| 2023 | 505 | 46% | +1.30R | +5.60% |
| 2024 | 488 | 27% | +0.09R | +0.11% |
| 2025 | 527 | 30% | -0.09R | -0.75% |
| 2026 | 280 | 28% | -0.21R | -1.25% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 21 | 38% | +3.7% | +47% | +78% | +47% |
| 2 | ████████ | 27 | 41% | +9.3% | +95% | +250% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 24 | 21% | +0.8% | +43% | +20% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 27 | 41% | +22.6% | +182% | +610% | +37% |
| 5 | ████████ | 25 | 40% | +8.6% | +83% | +214% | +36% |
| 6 | ████████ | 28 | 43% | +5.0% | +66% | +139% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 25 | 36% | +2.6% | +68% | +66% | +27% |
| 8 | POLYCAB free peek | 22 | 55% | +7.6% | +55% | +166% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 10 | 20% | -1.3% | +23% | -13% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 26 | 58% | +13.7% | +178% | +357% | +19% |
| 11 | ████████ | 15 | 33% | +4.6% | +53% | +70% | +18% |
| 12 | ████████ | 27 | 48% | +3.7% | +42% | +99% | +14% |
| 13 | ████████ | 26 | 31% | +3.2% | +68% | +83% | +14% |
| 14 | ████████ | 25 | 32% | +1.5% | +53% | +37% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | -1.5% | +17% | -41% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 28 | 39% | +3.4% | +58% | +96% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 24 | 54% | +2.8% | +21% | +68% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 26 | 38% | +5.4% | +75% | +139% | +10% |
| 19 | ████████ | 29 | 45% | +1.8% | +33% | +53% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 26 | 35% | +1.9% | +40% | +49% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 8 | 38% | +2.6% | +37% | +21% | -24% |
| 22 | ████████ | 26 | 46% | +6.2% | +55% | +161% | -22% |
| 23 | ████████ | 22 | 50% | +1.5% | +26% | +32% | -18% |
| 24 | ████████ | 30 | 30% | +0.3% | +56% | +9% | -17% |
| 25 | ████████ | 25 | 28% | +0.4% | +30% | +11% | -16% |
| 26 | ████████ | 22 | 36% | +2.3% | +45% | +51% | -16% |
| 27 | ████████ | 30 | 33% | +2.1% | +38% | +63% | -16% |
| 28 | ████████ | 29 | 24% | -0.3% | +36% | -9% | -15% |
| 29 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | -0.2% | +49% | -4% | -15% |
| 30 | ████████ | 23 | 52% | +7.9% | +97% | +182% | -15% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 40 | 48% | +0.69R | +1.64% |
| BANKNIFTY | 41 | 44% | +0.45R | +1.37% |
Full transcript (189 words)
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