Your idea: Step 1: Setup and Strike Price Selection • Set up your trading platfor…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 3% / target 9% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
3,167 trades on ₹1L: net -343.9% over 12 years (-28.7%/yr, loses money), win 21%, payoff 2.07 (avg win ₹642 / avg loss ₹-310), max drawdown -344%, worst trade ₹-1,297. 2015: ₹-11,171. 2016: ₹-8,866. 2017: ₹-13,682. 2018: ₹-8,537. 2019: ₹-18,027. 2020: ₹-34,212. 2021: ₹-43,940. 2022: ₹-31,392. 2023: ₹-41,529. 2024: ₹-42,107. 2025: ₹-55,016. 2026: ₹-35,445.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 135 | 25% | ₹-11,171 |
| 2016 | 208 | 27% | ₹-8,866 |
| 2017 | 250 | 26% | ₹-13,682 |
| 2018 | 240 | 27% | ₹-8,537 |
| 2019 | 232 | 23% | ₹-18,027 |
| 2020 | 256 | 22% | ₹-34,212 |
| 2021 | 373 | 19% | ₹-43,940 |
| 2022 | 316 | 22% | ₹-31,392 |
| 2023 | 318 | 15% | ₹-41,529 |
| 2024 | 274 | 18% | ₹-42,107 |
| 2025 | 393 | 19% | ₹-55,016 |
| 2026 | 172 | 16% | ₹-35,445 |
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