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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 3% / target 400% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
3,167 trades on ₹1L: net -160.5% over 12 years (-13.4%/yr, loses money), win 8%, payoff 9.02 (avg win ₹2,778 / avg loss ₹-308), max drawdown -210%, worst trade ₹-1,297. 2015: ₹+3,442. 2016: ₹-2,717. 2017: ₹+1,322. 2018: ₹+18,766. 2019: ₹-3,321. 2020: ₹+1,740. 2021: ₹-17,199. 2022: ₹+15,252. 2023: ₹-31,259. 2024: ₹-50,619. 2025: ₹-36,139. 2026: ₹-59,775.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 135 | 16% | ₹+3,442 |
| 2016 | 208 | 13% | ₹-2,717 |
| 2017 | 250 | 16% | ₹+1,322 |
| 2018 | 240 | 14% | ₹+18,766 |
| 2019 | 232 | 6% | ₹-3,321 |
| 2020 | 256 | 7% | ₹+1,740 |
| 2021 | 373 | 8% | ₹-17,199 |
| 2022 | 316 | 7% | ₹+15,252 |
| 2023 | 318 | 5% | ₹-31,259 |
| 2024 | 274 | 3% | ₹-50,619 |
| 2025 | 393 | 7% | ₹-36,139 |
| 2026 | 172 | 4% | ₹-59,775 |
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