Your idea: SMA 10, SMA 20 cross over , when SMA 10 crosses above SMA 20, take lon…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.29R across 6,256 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: SMA 10/20 crossover strategy: buy when SMA 10 crosses above SMA 20, exit when price closes below SMA 10. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,256 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.27, expectancy +0.29R/trade (avg +1.53%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-10 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +6% | +11% | +73% | +18% | -4% | +17% | +5% | -2% | -2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 394 | 28% | -0.16R | -1.34% |
| 2019 | 825 | 31% | +0.08R | +0.31% |
| 2020 | 664 | 45% | +0.96R | +7.91% |
| 2021 | 714 | 36% | +0.37R | +2.06% |
| 2022 | 817 | 30% | +0.08R | +0.22% |
| 2023 | 782 | 43% | +1.16R | +4.92% |
| 2024 | 774 | 26% | +0.10R | +0.39% |
| 2025 | 905 | 26% | -0.08R | -0.76% |
| 2026 | 381 | 23% | -0.27R | -1.39% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 38 | 29% | +1.5% | +44% | +55% | +44% |
| 2 | ████████ | 33 | 36% | +7.1% | +58% | +236% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 46 | 30% | +3.5% | +74% | +162% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 32 | 28% | +3.7% | +92% | +118% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 36 | 36% | +14.9% | +162% | +537% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 37 | 38% | +4.6% | +74% | +171% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 38 | 39% | +5.2% | +86% | +199% | +31% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 37 | 41% | +4.7% | +68% | +174% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 36 | 36% | +8.6% | +191% | +311% | +21% |
| 10 | ████████ | 15 | 20% | -1.8% | +22% | -27% | +21% |
| 11 | ████████ | 28 | 46% | +6.3% | +51% | +176% | +19% |
| 12 | ████████ | 25 | 28% | +2.6% | +53% | +65% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 45 | 33% | +2.6% | +69% | +117% | +15% |
| 14 | ████████ | 37 | 32% | +1.5% | +56% | +54% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 39 | 31% | +3.2% | +82% | +125% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 42 | 43% | +3.8% | +43% | +159% | +11% |
| 17 | ████████ | 41 | 24% | -0.3% | +39% | -12% | +11% |
| 18 | ████████ | 45 | 36% | +2.7% | +72% | +122% | +9% |
| 19 | ████████ | 42 | 36% | +2.8% | +69% | +118% | +9% |
| 20 | ████████ | 44 | 34% | +0.4% | +19% | +17% | +8% |
| 21 | ████████ | 41 | 24% | +2.1% | +73% | +88% | -23% |
| 22 | ████████ | 37 | 35% | +3.4% | +37% | +124% | -22% |
| 23 | ████████ | 43 | 23% | -0.4% | +29% | -19% | -21% |
| 24 | ████████ | 43 | 33% | -0.3% | +19% | -15% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 39 | 21% | +0.4% | +38% | +15% | -20% |
| 26 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +0.6% | +38% | +27% | -19% |
| 27 | ████████ | 36 | 33% | +0.8% | +32% | +29% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 41 | 29% | +1.0% | +52% | +40% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 43 | 23% | +0.9% | +48% | +39% | -18% |
| 30 | ████████ | 49 | 22% | -1.3% | +18% | -63% | -17% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 49 | 43% | +0.47R | +0.96% |
| BANKNIFTY | 54 | 41% | +0.34R | +1.01% |
Full transcript (25 words)
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