Your idea: Signal (Nifty 50 index, 3-minute chart, IST) • 30m range: a complete…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 10% / target 30% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,884 trades on ₹1L: net -145.3% over 12 years (-12.1%/yr, loses money), win 27%, payoff 2.40 (avg win ₹2,059 / avg loss ₹-857), max drawdown -154%, worst trade ₹-3,137. 2015: ₹+2,208. 2016: ₹-6,998. 2017: ₹-13,650. 2018: ₹+5,436. 2019: ₹+8,713. 2020: ₹-30,303. 2021: ₹+14,028. 2022: ₹-19,703. 2023: ₹-19,633. 2024: ₹+732. 2025: ₹-43,158. 2026: ₹-43,015.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 67 | 37% | ₹+2,208 |
| 2016 | 118 | 28% | ₹-6,998 |
| 2017 | 145 | 31% | ₹-13,650 |
| 2018 | 139 | 30% | ₹+5,436 |
| 2019 | 145 | 29% | ₹+8,713 |
| 2020 | 158 | 22% | ₹-30,303 |
| 2021 | 244 | 30% | ₹+14,028 |
| 2022 | 192 | 25% | ₹-19,703 |
| 2023 | 187 | 24% | ₹-19,633 |
| 2024 | 154 | 25% | ₹+732 |
| 2025 | 232 | 25% | ₹-43,158 |
| 2026 | 103 | 21% | ₹-43,015 |
Full transcript (352 words)
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