Your idea: Signal (Nifty 50 index, 3-minute chart, IST) • 30m range: a complete… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
FakeTrades.in
← all strategies
Y

Your idea: Signal (Nifty 50 index, 3-minute chart, IST) • 30m range: a complete…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 11 Oct 2026, 02:19 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 10% / target 30% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

1,884 trades on ₹1L: net -145.3% over 12 years (-12.1%/yr, loses money), win 27%, payoff 2.40 (avg win ₹2,059 / avg loss ₹-857), max drawdown -154%, worst trade ₹-3,137. 2015: ₹+2,208. 2016: ₹-6,998. 2017: ₹-13,650. 2018: ₹+5,436. 2019: ₹+8,713. 2020: ₹-30,303. 2021: ₹+14,028. 2022: ₹-19,703. 2023: ₹-19,633. 2024: ₹+732. 2025: ₹-43,158. 2026: ₹-43,015.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

See strategies that scored 4★+ →
Know someone trading this?

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156737% ₹+2,208
201611828% ₹-6,998
201714531% ₹-13,650
201813930% ₹+5,436
201914529% ₹+8,713
202015822% ₹-30,303
202124430% ₹+14,028
202219225% ₹-19,703
202318724% ₹-19,633
202415425% ₹+732
202523225% ₹-43,158
202610321% ₹-43,015
Full transcript (352 words)
Signal (Nifty 50 index, 3-minute chart, IST) • 30m range: a completed 30m candle qualifies if its body (|close − open|) is smaller than the previous 30m candle's body. Its high and low become the active range, a newer qualifying candle replaces it, and ranges reset every day. • Breakout: the first 3m close beyond the range high (long) or low (short), on a candle in the same direction with a body of at least 75% of its high-low range. Each level can trigger only once, even if the candle fails the filters. • Candle gap: at least 1 three-minute candle between the candle that made the 30m high or low and the breakout candle. • Entry trigger: a limit at the 50% level of the breakout candle, (high + low) / 2, on the index. It's cancelled if unfilled after 10 three-minute bars (30 min), or at 13:00 IST. Option trade • Long signal: buy the call at the nearest strike above the index entry price (22430 → 22450 CE). • Short signal: buy the put at the nearest strike below the index entry price (22430 → 22400 PE). • Exactly on a strike: use that strike. • Entry price: the option premium at the moment the index limit fills (assumed). • SL: 10 points below the entry premium. • TP: fixed 1:3, so 30 points above the entry premium. • Example: enter at 110, SL at 100, TP at 140. • Other exits: trailing SL and other exits may be tested later. The index structure SL is not used. Daily limits • Trades per day: at most 2. • Second trade rule: allowed only if the first trade was a win. No second trade after a loss. • Cooldown: at least 10 minutes after the previous trade closes. Time • Entry window: 9:15 to 13:00 IST. • Force close: everything is closed at 14:30 IST. Assumptions to confirm • Expiry: the current weekly expiry. • Win and loss: TP hit is a win and SL hit is a loss. A 14:30 forced close counts by whether it closed in profit.

💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)

No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.

User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.