Your idea: Regime: price > 200-EMA = long-only; < 200-EMA = flat or short. • En…
One-time — gone on refresh. Copy it and paste as a YouTube comment.
Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.05R per trade across 18,580 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.52 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 8 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -100% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Connors-style RSI(2) mean reversion with 200-EMA trend filter and 5-EMA exit. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 18,580 trades, win 60%, payoff 0.52, expectancy -0.05R/trade (avg -0.58%/trade).
This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 0% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-20 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | -11% | -37% | -31% | -70% | -28% | -42% | -72% | -64% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1071 | 62% | -0.04R | -0.57% |
| 2019 | 2291 | 60% | -0.04R | -0.45% |
| 2020 | 2221 | 59% | -0.07R | -0.98% |
| 2021 | 2156 | 63% | -0.00R | -0.20% |
| 2022 | 2541 | 58% | -0.08R | -0.79% |
| 2023 | 2023 | 60% | -0.03R | -0.46% |
| 2024 | 2492 | 60% | -0.05R | -0.53% |
| 2025 | 2628 | 60% | -0.05R | -0.52% |
| 2026 | 1157 | 56% | -0.12R | -0.83% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 116 | 62% | -0.6% | +6% | -65% | +16% |
| 2 | ████████ | 131 | 58% | -0.7% | +8% | -90% | +14% |
| 3 | ████████ | 120 | 52% | -0.6% | +14% | -66% | +12% |
| 4 | ████████ | 125 | 58% | -0.3% | +8% | -39% | +11% |
| 5 | ████████ | 117 | 49% | -1.8% | +23% | -214% | +11% |
| 6 | ████████ | 144 | 59% | -0.0% | +11% | -7% | +10% |
| 7 | ████████ | 110 | 61% | -0.2% | +16% | -18% | +9% |
| 8 | NMDC free peek | 116 | 63% | -0.6% | +6% | -75% | +9% |
| 9 | ████████ | 125 | 51% | -0.8% | +5% | -95% | +9% |
| 10 | ████████ | 114 | 59% | +0.3% | +11% | +29% | +8% |
| 11 | ████████ | 121 | 64% | -0.3% | +14% | -39% | +8% |
| 12 | ████████ | 113 | 55% | -0.5% | +8% | -62% | +8% |
| 13 | ████████ | 116 | 65% | -0.0% | +6% | -2% | +7% |
| 14 | ████████ | 116 | 56% | -0.6% | +7% | -75% | +7% |
| 15 | ████████ | 117 | 54% | -0.9% | +6% | -107% | +7% |
| 16 | ████████ | 118 | 64% | +0.0% | +15% | +0% | +6% |
| 17 | ████████ | 119 | 52% | -0.4% | +6% | -45% | +6% |
| 18 | ████████ | 122 | 55% | -0.4% | +16% | -47% | +6% |
| 19 | ████████ | 133 | 57% | -0.6% | +11% | -76% | +6% |
| 20 | ████████ | 116 | 57% | -0.0% | +8% | -1% | +5% |
| 21 | ████████ | 110 | 50% | -1.1% | +8% | -120% | -35% |
| 22 | ████████ | 117 | 48% | -1.0% | +6% | -120% | -34% |
| 23 | ████████ | 125 | 48% | -0.9% | +11% | -112% | -34% |
| 24 | ████████ | 109 | 52% | -1.0% | +6% | -108% | -27% |
| 25 | ████████ | 129 | 57% | -0.5% | +8% | -71% | -27% |
| 26 | ████████ | 141 | 50% | -0.8% | +9% | -107% | -26% |
| 27 | ████████ | 102 | 58% | -0.6% | +15% | -56% | -26% |
| 28 | ████████ | 74 | 47% | -1.4% | +7% | -100% | -25% |
| 29 | ████████ | 85 | 58% | -0.1% | +9% | -9% | -25% |
| 30 | ████████ | 133 | 56% | -0.3% | +7% | -41% | -23% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 151 | 54% | -0.16R | -0.62% |
| BANKNIFTY | 159 | 58% | -0.05R | -0.28% |
Full transcript (36 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.