Your idea: price crossing up 75EMA and then Crossing down 75EMA to trigger a sell…
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.14R across 9,629 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 5.5 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 20% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -34% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: EMA-75 trend-following strategy with buy on uptrend flip and sell on downtrend flip; 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 9,629 trades, win 20%, payoff 5.46, expectancy +0.14R/trade (avg +0.57%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -14% | +6% | +14% | +35% | +1% | +30% | +2% | -7% | -5% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 689 | 17% | -0.19R | -1.50% |
| 2019 | 1309 | 19% | +0.02R | -0.11% |
| 2020 | 1068 | 26% | +0.49R | +3.70% |
| 2021 | 1068 | 22% | +0.13R | +0.60% |
| 2022 | 1290 | 19% | -0.00R | -0.24% |
| 2023 | 1095 | 29% | +0.74R | +3.09% |
| 2024 | 1113 | 19% | +0.10R | +0.35% |
| 2025 | 1393 | 17% | -0.04R | -0.55% |
| 2026 | 604 | 14% | -0.17R | -0.97% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 60 | 18% | +1.3% | +57% | +80% | +54% |
| 2 | ████████ | 55 | 22% | +6.8% | +187% | +373% | +49% |
| 3 | ████████ | 51 | 25% | +5.5% | +74% | +281% | +46% |
| 4 | ████████ | 63 | 24% | +6.8% | +165% | +428% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 56 | 21% | +1.5% | +44% | +84% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 56 | 20% | +2.1% | +94% | +118% | +34% |
| 7 | ████████ | 64 | 14% | +1.5% | +99% | +95% | +30% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 66 | 26% | +2.3% | +68% | +153% | +29% |
| 9 | ████████ | 59 | 19% | +1.8% | +66% | +104% | +28% |
| 10 | ████████ | 49 | 24% | +8.0% | +255% | +394% | +27% |
| 11 | ████████ | 61 | 18% | +1.6% | +41% | +97% | +23% |
| 12 | ████████ | 37 | 35% | +5.2% | +64% | +191% | +22% |
| 13 | ████████ | 20 | 15% | -1.6% | +24% | -31% | +20% |
| 14 | ████████ | 61 | 21% | +1.7% | +53% | +101% | +16% |
| 15 | ████████ | 59 | 22% | +1.2% | +44% | +71% | +16% |
| 16 | ████████ | 58 | 24% | +1.1% | +56% | +65% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 38 | 18% | +1.4% | +38% | +52% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 53 | 32% | +3.0% | +48% | +161% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 74 | 18% | -0.5% | +17% | -36% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 56 | 21% | +0.4% | +25% | +23% | +9% |
| 21 | ████████ | 104 | 9% | -1.5% | +26% | -153% | -35% |
| 22 | ████████ | 72 | 22% | +0.7% | +37% | +50% | -31% |
| 23 | ████████ | 64 | 19% | +0.1% | +30% | +6% | -28% |
| 24 | ████████ | 62 | 19% | +0.1% | +41% | +7% | -24% |
| 25 | ████████ | 62 | 13% | -0.2% | +44% | -11% | -23% |
| 26 | ████████ | 65 | 22% | +0.7% | +58% | +46% | -22% |
| 27 | ████████ | 70 | 14% | +0.5% | +54% | +34% | -21% |
| 28 | ████████ | 61 | 21% | +0.9% | +69% | +56% | -21% |
| 29 | ████████ | 75 | 16% | -0.7% | +17% | -51% | -20% |
| 30 | ████████ | 79 | 19% | -0.6% | +33% | -44% | -20% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 80 | 25% | +0.25R | +0.44% |
| BANKNIFTY | 82 | 26% | +0.24R | +0.57% |
Full transcript (49 words)
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