Your idea: Options trading in Sensex. After 9.15 am and 9.30 with 15 min bars whe… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Options trading in Sensex. After 9.15 am and 9.30 with 15 min bars whe…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 19 Oct 2026, 09:37 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Intraday

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 20% / target 20% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.

1,945 trades on ₹1L: net -305.4% over 12 years (-25.4%/yr, loses money), win 47%, payoff 0.91 (avg win ₹1,475 / avg loss ₹-1,622), max drawdown -311%, worst trade ₹-7,002. 2015: ₹-14,986. 2016: ₹-22,233. 2017: ₹-21,680. 2018: ₹-27,742. 2019: ₹+826. 2020: ₹-6,355. 2021: ₹-12,069. 2022: ₹-37,554. 2023: ₹-38,365. 2024: ₹-4,638. 2025: ₹-76,245. 2026: ₹-44,319.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156748% ₹-14,986
201612643% ₹-22,233
201715346% ₹-21,680
201814645% ₹-27,742
201914853% ₹+826
202016448% ₹-6,355
202124751% ₹-12,069
202219449% ₹-37,554
202319045% ₹-38,365
202416049% ₹-4,638
202524445% ₹-76,245
202610643% ₹-44,319
Full transcript (47 words)
Options trading in Sensex. After 9.15 am and 9.30 with 15 min bars when 9 30 candle crosses the 9.15 candle then buy 1 lot of ce else 1 lot of pe then hold to 1 hr and exit with trailing stop loss with 20 percentage profit

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.