Your idea: On nifty put and call options , enter trade when on 3 min chart, sma 3…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.
7,520 trades on ₹1L: net -524.5% over 12 years (-43.7%/yr, loses money), win 40%, payoff 1.38 (avg win ₹2,236 / avg loss ₹-1,623), max drawdown -575%, worst trade ₹-11,047. 2015: ₹-48,120. 2016: ₹-53,977. 2017: ₹-42,006. 2018: ₹+4,948. 2019: ₹-60,729. 2020: ₹-19,388. 2021: ₹-27,087. 2022: ₹-95,219. 2023: ₹-55,206. 2024: ₹-68,737. 2025: ₹-90,709. 2026: ₹+31,708.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 297 | 40% | ₹-48,120 |
| 2016 | 495 | 42% | ₹-53,977 |
| 2017 | 608 | 41% | ₹-42,006 |
| 2018 | 516 | 44% | ₹+4,948 |
| 2019 | 578 | 38% | ₹-60,729 |
| 2020 | 611 | 41% | ₹-19,388 |
| 2021 | 942 | 41% | ₹-27,087 |
| 2022 | 740 | 39% | ₹-95,219 |
| 2023 | 694 | 38% | ₹-55,206 |
| 2024 | 659 | 39% | ₹-68,737 |
| 2025 | 989 | 39% | ₹-90,709 |
| 2026 | 391 | 43% | ₹+31,708 |
Full transcript (53 words)
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