Your idea: On NIFTY 50 stocks using daily bars, buy at the next trading day open…
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (-0.05R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Payoff 0.54 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 8 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -97% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: RSI(2) oversold mean-reversion with 200-EMA uptrend filter on NIFTY 50 daily bars. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 10,400 trades, win 60%, payoff 0.54, expectancy -0.05R/trade (avg -0.57%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 11% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18% | -21% | -15% | -17% | -39% | -34% | -46% | -46% | -41% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 608 | 61% | -0.04R | -0.52% |
| 2019 | 1274 | 59% | -0.04R | -0.42% |
| 2020 | 1272 | 60% | -0.10R | -1.25% |
| 2021 | 1191 | 63% | +0.01R | -0.09% |
| 2022 | 1429 | 58% | -0.09R | -0.87% |
| 2023 | 1098 | 60% | -0.04R | -0.56% |
| 2024 | 1419 | 60% | -0.03R | -0.37% |
| 2025 | 1455 | 61% | -0.01R | -0.31% |
| 2026 | 654 | 56% | -0.13R | -0.91% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 65 | 45% | -1.0% | +14% | -62% | +15% |
| 2 | ████████ | 71 | 51% | -0.4% | +11% | -29% | +13% |
| 3 | ████████ | 75 | 61% | -0.5% | +8% | -37% | +13% |
| 4 | ████████ | 64 | 55% | -0.6% | +14% | -41% | +11% |
| 5 | ████████ | 68 | 54% | -0.8% | +14% | -53% | +11% |
| 6 | ████████ | 71 | 59% | +0.2% | +6% | +11% | +8% |
| 7 | ████████ | 72 | 60% | +0.1% | +19% | +4% | +8% |
| 8 | ASTRAL free peek | 81 | 53% | -0.6% | +10% | -50% | +8% |
| 9 | ████████ | 60 | 57% | +0.0% | +8% | +1% | +6% |
| 10 | ████████ | 62 | 50% | -0.2% | +6% | -11% | +6% |
| 11 | ████████ | 65 | 60% | -0.8% | +8% | -49% | +6% |
| 12 | ████████ | 72 | 57% | -1.2% | +7% | -88% | +6% |
| 13 | ████████ | 72 | 54% | -1.8% | +23% | -128% | +6% |
| 14 | ████████ | 70 | 73% | +1.1% | +28% | +75% | +5% |
| 15 | ████████ | 74 | 58% | -0.0% | +8% | -1% | +5% |
| 16 | ████████ | 55 | 64% | +0.0% | +6% | +2% | +4% |
| 17 | ████████ | 71 | 49% | -0.2% | +11% | -15% | +4% |
| 18 | ████████ | 71 | 61% | -0.4% | +10% | -26% | +4% |
| 19 | ████████ | 75 | 56% | -0.6% | +5% | -48% | +4% |
| 20 | ████████ | 53 | 40% | -1.3% | +5% | -69% | +4% |
| 21 | ████████ | 67 | 43% | -1.5% | +6% | -103% | -24% |
| 22 | ████████ | 76 | 54% | -0.5% | +5% | -35% | -23% |
| 23 | ████████ | 71 | 52% | -1.0% | +6% | -71% | -21% |
| 24 | ████████ | 86 | 52% | -0.8% | +7% | -65% | -21% |
| 25 | ████████ | 65 | 48% | -1.1% | +7% | -71% | -20% |
| 26 | ████████ | 72 | 60% | -0.6% | +5% | -44% | -20% |
| 27 | ████████ | 78 | 49% | -1.1% | +9% | -85% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 66 | 53% | -0.8% | +5% | -53% | -18% |
| 29 | ████████ | 81 | 54% | -0.4% | +11% | -34% | -18% |
| 30 | ████████ | 57 | 49% | -1.0% | +6% | -59% | -16% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 84 | 49% | -0.13R | -0.42% |
| BANKNIFTY | 92 | 53% | -0.04R | -0.36% |
Full transcript (68 words)
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