Your idea: NIFTY Gap-and-Go → Williams chain — strategy details (OptionsBuyer.in… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: NIFTY Gap-and-Go → Williams chain — strategy details (OptionsBuyer.in…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 25 Oct 2026, 10:05 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Opening range

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 5% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

1,884 trades on ₹1L: net -264.1% over 12 years (-22.0%/yr, loses money), win 81%, payoff 0.16 (avg win ₹341 / avg loss ₹-2,142), max drawdown -271%, worst trade ₹-7,537. 2015: ₹-9,738. 2016: ₹-20,237. 2017: ₹-21,675. 2018: ₹-7,761. 2019: ₹-5,805. 2020: ₹-30,127. 2021: ₹+751. 2022: ₹-43,031. 2023: ₹-45,912. 2024: ₹-20,621. 2025: ₹-59,356. 2026: ₹-635.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156784% ₹-9,738
201611876% ₹-20,237
201714572% ₹-21,675
201813978% ₹-7,761
201914586% ₹-5,805
202015882% ₹-30,127
202124486% ₹+751
202219281% ₹-43,031
202318777% ₹-45,912
202415482% ₹-20,621
202523278% ₹-59,356
202610385% ₹-635
Full transcript (409 words)
NIFTY Gap-and-Go → Williams chain — strategy details (OptionsBuyer.in · research data only, not investment advice) 1. The 10% opening-range breakout (NIFTY, gap-and-go bot) • Opening range (OR): the highest and lowest 1-minute CLOSING prices from 09:15 to 09:45, both minutes included (31 bars). Candle highs and lows are not used. • Width (W): OR high minus OR low. • Trigger levels: – Upside: OR high + 0.10 × W – Downside: OR low − 0.10 × W – Example: if the OR is 24,000–24,100, W is 100. A CE triggers when a 1-minute close goes above 24,110; a PE triggers below 23,990. • When it checks: 1-minute closes from 09:46 to 12:00. • Direction: the gap sets it. Gap = NIFTY's 09:15 price compared with the previous day's 15:15 close. After a gap-up the bot only takes the upside break; after a gap-down, only the downside break. • When the gap-and-go bot stands down: – The opposite band breaks first ("opposite_first"). – At the moment of the break, NIFTY has already touched yesterday's 15:15 close earlier in the day ("filled" — the gap already closed). – Nothing breaks by 12:00 ("no_break"). • Entry: on the next 1-minute bar after the signal, buy the 150-point in-the-money weekly option (CE on an upside break, PE on a downside break). 2. Williams levels (back-up bot) • Prior day's range (R): yesterday's highest minus lowest 1-minute close. • Levels: today's open + 0.5 × R (buy CE) and today's open − 0.5 × R (buy PE). • Trigger: the first 1-minute close beyond either level, from the hand-over minute until 14:29. • It only trades when the gap-and-go bot stood down with "opposite_first" or "filled", and only when the gap is under 0.2% or 0.5% and above. Not after "no_break", and never on 0.2–0.5% gap days. • Entry: next 1-minute bar, 150-point in-the-money weekly option. 3. Exits (same for both bots, on the option premium) • Stop-loss: exit when the premium falls to 70% of the entry price (−30%). • Trailing stop: once the premium has been above 105% of entry, exit if it falls to 80% of its highest point (20% pullback). • Time exit: flat at 15:15 if neither stop has hit. • Stops are checked on 1-minute closes; the exit fills on the next bar. One position per day at most. Backtest costs: 0.1% per side plus brokerage, taxes and fees; also tested at an extra 0.2% per side.

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