Your idea: NIFTY Gap-and-Go → Williams chain — strategy details (OptionsBuyer.in…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 5% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,884 trades on ₹1L: net -264.1% over 12 years (-22.0%/yr, loses money), win 81%, payoff 0.16 (avg win ₹341 / avg loss ₹-2,142), max drawdown -271%, worst trade ₹-7,537. 2015: ₹-9,738. 2016: ₹-20,237. 2017: ₹-21,675. 2018: ₹-7,761. 2019: ₹-5,805. 2020: ₹-30,127. 2021: ₹+751. 2022: ₹-43,031. 2023: ₹-45,912. 2024: ₹-20,621. 2025: ₹-59,356. 2026: ₹-635.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 67 | 84% | ₹-9,738 |
| 2016 | 118 | 76% | ₹-20,237 |
| 2017 | 145 | 72% | ₹-21,675 |
| 2018 | 139 | 78% | ₹-7,761 |
| 2019 | 145 | 86% | ₹-5,805 |
| 2020 | 158 | 82% | ₹-30,127 |
| 2021 | 244 | 86% | ₹+751 |
| 2022 | 192 | 81% | ₹-43,031 |
| 2023 | 187 | 77% | ₹-45,912 |
| 2024 | 154 | 82% | ₹-20,621 |
| 2025 | 232 | 78% | ₹-59,356 |
| 2026 | 103 | 85% | ₹-635 |
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