Your idea: Nifty closes above supertrend & minimum previous 3 consecutive candles… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Nifty closes above supertrend & minimum previous 3 consecutive candles…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 27 Oct 2026, 03:17 AM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Intraday SupertrendEMA

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “Exit rule: 10% profit or 5% stop loss Then Buy 2 lots of Current expiry ATM nifty Call.”

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 5% / target 10% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

12,849 trades on ₹1L: net -1328.5% over 12 years (-110.7%/yr, loses money), win 30%, payoff 1.57 (avg win ₹711 / avg loss ₹-454), max drawdown -1338%, worst trade ₹-2,059. 2015: ₹-38,518. 2016: ₹-59,959. 2017: ₹-75,679. 2018: ₹-18,785. 2019: ₹-71,954. 2020: ₹-130,782. 2021: ₹-183,662. 2022: ₹-184,651. 2023: ₹-152,424. 2024: ₹-113,709. 2025: ₹-205,358. 2026: ₹-93,062.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
201550731% ₹-38,518
201684733% ₹-59,959
2017102332% ₹-75,679
201893937% ₹-18,785
2019100730% ₹-71,954
2020105929% ₹-130,782
2021156829% ₹-183,662
2022123128% ₹-184,651
2023125526% ₹-152,424
2024110930% ₹-113,709
2025164930% ₹-205,358
202665530% ₹-93,062
Full transcript (87 words)
Nifty closes above supertrend & minimum previous 3 consecutive candles are closing above 9 Ema in 2 minutes time frame. Bank Nifty closes above supertrend & minimum 3 consecutive previous candles are closing above 9 Ema in 2 minutes time frame. Both index also have very strong candle closing or about to close above 9 Ema in 5 minutes time frame. Exit rule: 10% profit or 5% stop loss Then Buy 2 lots of Current expiry ATM nifty Call. & buy ATM put on it's opposite scenario.

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.