Your idea: "NIFTY, BANKNIFTY and SENSEX index options, intraday: between 09:20 an… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: "NIFTY, BANKNIFTY and SENSEX index options, intraday: between 09:20 an…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 23 Oct 2026, 11:56 PM IST
★★½☆☆ 2.5 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Intraday EMAVWAPADXATRVolume

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 12% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.

1,103 trades on ₹1L: net +36.4% over 12 years (+3.0%/yr, is modestly positive), win 27%, payoff 2.77 (avg win ₹2,664 / avg loss ₹-964), max drawdown -70%, worst trade ₹-3,791. 2015: ₹+3,234. 2016: ₹+8,669. 2017: ₹+2,227. 2018: ₹+13,890. 2019: ₹-7,254. 2020: ₹-20,165. 2021: ₹-25,142. 2022: ₹+3,517. 2023: ₹-4,355. 2024: ₹+42,163. 2025: ₹+55,089. 2026: ₹-35,433.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20155137% ₹+3,234
20166639% ₹+8,669
20178539% ₹+2,227
20187837% ₹+13,890
20199122% ₹-7,254
202010119% ₹-20,165
202114621% ₹-25,142
202210229% ₹+3,517
20239923% ₹-4,355
20249124% ₹+42,163
202512933% ₹+55,089
20266414% ₹-35,433
Full transcript (412 words)
"NIFTY, BANKNIFTY and SENSEX index options, intraday: between 09:20 and 14:30, buy 1 lot of the at-the-money call of the nearest expiry with at least 2 days left, at the ask plus 2 ticks, when the setup scores at least 36 of 60 points. Trend is worth 25: the index above its daily 20 EMA with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA (8), above yesterday's high (4), above the 5-minute 9 EMA with that above the 15-minute 20 EMA (5), above the opening-range high (4), and daily ADX(14) at 22 or more (4). Option flow is worth 25: the call above its VWAP (5), the put below its VWAP (3), the call above its 15-minute high (7), and 2.5 points for each 1x of ATM call + put volume over its 20-day median for that time of day, up to 10. Regime is worth 10: India VIX up less than 3% on the day (3), the time between 09:30 and 13:30 (3), and at least one day to expiry (4). The entry also needs ATM call + put volume at least 1.5x normal, the order book leaning at least 0.35 toward buyers, a premium of ₹40–600, and a spread of at most 1%. Mirror every condition to buy the put in a downtrend. The trade is wrong if the index moves 1.5x ATR(14) on 5-minute bars against the entry. The option stop is the widest of delta times that index distance, 12% of the premium, or 1.5x the option's own 5-minute ATR, and that distance is 1R. Sell half at 1.4R; with a single lot there is no half, so the whole lot rides on. Then move the stop to breakeven plus fees, and let the rest run to a target of 1.6R at a score of 60, rising to 3.6R at 100. Trail the rest up one-third of the stop distance for every one-third the premium gains, and once it is 1.8R ahead, raise its stop to 2 ticks below the lower of the option's VWAP and the previous 5-minute low. Exit early if the index crosses its stop level, or if the trade is 1R or more ahead and the order book turns 0.45 against it for 15 seconds, and close everything at 15:15. Hold one trade per index, two at most in total, take no more than 2 entries per index per day at least 30 minutes apart, and stop trading for the day at a ₹2,500 loss."

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