Your idea: NIFTY 9-EMA MULTI-TIMEFRAME STRATEGY Python Backtesting Specification…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 13% / target 13% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
12,849 trades on ₹1L: net -1396.6% over 12 years (-116.4%/yr, loses money), win 47%, payoff 0.91 (avg win ₹912 / avg loss ₹-1,002), max drawdown -1402%, worst trade ₹-5,220. 2015: ₹-59,751. 2016: ₹-84,272. 2017: ₹-109,221. 2018: ₹-56,093. 2019: ₹-98,891. 2020: ₹-108,898. 2021: ₹-162,658. 2022: ₹-136,981. 2023: ₹-98,889. 2024: ₹-131,197. 2025: ₹-235,625. 2026: ₹-114,078.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 507 | 43% | ₹-59,751 |
| 2016 | 847 | 45% | ₹-84,272 |
| 2017 | 1023 | 43% | ₹-109,221 |
| 2018 | 939 | 48% | ₹-56,093 |
| 2019 | 1007 | 46% | ₹-98,891 |
| 2020 | 1059 | 48% | ₹-108,898 |
| 2021 | 1568 | 48% | ₹-162,658 |
| 2022 | 1231 | 47% | ₹-136,981 |
| 2023 | 1255 | 48% | ₹-98,889 |
| 2024 | 1109 | 46% | ₹-131,197 |
| 2025 | 1649 | 46% | ₹-235,625 |
| 2026 | 655 | 47% | ₹-114,078 |
Full transcript (668 words)
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