Your idea: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty stocks, daily candles: buy at 09:20 the next d…
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.13R across 11,888 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 5.0 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 22% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -53% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: 50-EMA trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 11,888 trades, win 22%, payoff 5.01, expectancy +0.13R/trade (avg +0.57%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18% | -24% | +14% | +22% | -10% | +9% | -14% | +4% | -19% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 778 | 19% | -0.16R | -1.35% |
| 2019 | 1605 | 20% | +0.02R | -0.12% |
| 2020 | 1286 | 28% | +0.48R | +3.65% |
| 2021 | 1381 | 24% | +0.18R | +0.94% |
| 2022 | 1595 | 21% | +0.00R | -0.20% |
| 2023 | 1430 | 28% | +0.59R | +2.40% |
| 2024 | 1422 | 21% | +0.09R | +0.31% |
| 2025 | 1684 | 19% | -0.03R | -0.49% |
| 2026 | 707 | 17% | -0.17R | -0.97% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 66 | 24% | +8.0% | +173% | +531% | +51% |
| 2 | ████████ | 66 | 24% | +3.7% | +74% | +243% | +47% |
| 3 | ████████ | 72 | 19% | +0.8% | +44% | +56% | +42% |
| 4 | ████████ | 76 | 16% | +0.7% | +92% | +54% | +37% |
| 5 | ████████ | 68 | 29% | +6.4% | +164% | +434% | +36% |
| 6 | ████████ | 72 | 25% | +2.6% | +94% | +187% | +31% |
| 7 | ████████ | 86 | 24% | +2.1% | +68% | +177% | +31% |
| 8 | BHEL free peek | 70 | 27% | +2.8% | +81% | +199% | +30% |
| 9 | ████████ | 60 | 23% | +8.2% | +274% | +490% | +28% |
| 10 | ████████ | 22 | 18% | -0.8% | +24% | -19% | +27% |
| 11 | ████████ | 46 | 41% | +4.5% | +55% | +206% | +26% |
| 12 | ████████ | 79 | 23% | +0.7% | +66% | +55% | +20% |
| 13 | ████████ | 46 | 15% | +1.2% | +51% | +54% | +16% |
| 14 | ████████ | 59 | 32% | +1.5% | +56% | +86% | +12% |
| 15 | ████████ | 66 | 20% | +0.4% | +25% | +26% | +12% |
| 16 | ████████ | 68 | 34% | +2.5% | +43% | +170% | +11% |
| 17 | ████████ | 73 | 21% | +0.6% | +51% | +46% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 74 | 20% | +1.0% | +41% | +75% | +9% |
| 19 | ████████ | 68 | 25% | +1.7% | +62% | +117% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 75 | 24% | +0.9% | +34% | +70% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 74 | 20% | +0.2% | +30% | +17% | -32% |
| 22 | ████████ | 71 | 21% | +2.0% | +48% | +141% | -26% |
| 23 | ████████ | 76 | 18% | -0.2% | +40% | -18% | -25% |
| 24 | ████████ | 81 | 19% | -0.1% | +38% | -5% | -25% |
| 25 | ████████ | 84 | 21% | +0.5% | +44% | +44% | -25% |
| 26 | ████████ | 36 | 28% | +2.5% | +60% | +89% | -24% |
| 27 | ████████ | 65 | 17% | -0.4% | +37% | -24% | -23% |
| 28 | ████████ | 90 | 20% | -0.2% | +50% | -16% | -23% |
| 29 | ████████ | 93 | 16% | +0.0% | +84% | +3% | -23% |
| 30 | ████████ | 24 | 25% | +2.4% | +44% | +57% | -23% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 88 | 25% | +0.21R | +0.41% |
| BANKNIFTY | 106 | 23% | +0.08R | +0.13% |
Full transcript (92 words)
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