Your idea: Mainboard IPO, when create its first resistance on daily closing basis…
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -84% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Buy breakout above first resistance level (daily close basis) on mainboard IPO; stop loss at the low of resistance day. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 46,731 trades, win 35%, payoff 1.86, expectancy +0.01R/trade (avg -0.18%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-31 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13% | -36% | -14% | +22% | -21% | -7% | -11% | -28% | -37% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2597 | 31% | -0.08R | -0.74% |
| 2019 | 5256 | 34% | -0.06R | -0.56% |
| 2020 | 5761 | 40% | +0.14R | +0.76% |
| 2021 | 5849 | 37% | +0.08R | +0.22% |
| 2022 | 5966 | 34% | -0.04R | -0.53% |
| 2023 | 6220 | 38% | +0.07R | +0.06% |
| 2024 | 6099 | 35% | -0.00R | -0.22% |
| 2025 | 6183 | 34% | -0.06R | -0.57% |
| 2026 | 2800 | 29% | -0.10R | -0.63% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 98 | 31% | +0.3% | +36% | +26% | +143% |
| 2 | ████████ | 302 | 44% | +2.4% | +66% | +718% | +127% |
| 3 | ████████ | 291 | 30% | -0.1% | +41% | -36% | +118% |
| 4 | ████████ | 250 | 40% | +2.6% | +78% | +651% | +109% |
| 5 | ████████ | 297 | 35% | +0.3% | +28% | +91% | +59% |
| 6 | ████████ | 246 | 37% | -0.1% | +29% | -13% | +55% |
| 7 | ████████ | 326 | 36% | +0.5% | +26% | +176% | +46% |
| 8 | DEEPAKNTR free peek | 288 | 33% | +0.3% | +47% | +86% | +46% |
| 9 | ████████ | 285 | 42% | +3.4% | +178% | +962% | +41% |
| 10 | ████████ | 260 | 43% | +5.0% | +119% | +1299% | +40% |
| 11 | ████████ | 270 | 34% | +1.0% | +81% | +269% | +36% |
| 12 | ████████ | 316 | 34% | -0.4% | +19% | -135% | +33% |
| 13 | ████████ | 325 | 36% | +0.4% | +31% | +123% | +27% |
| 14 | ████████ | 325 | 35% | -0.3% | +25% | -100% | +26% |
| 15 | ████████ | 286 | 36% | +0.0% | +27% | +6% | +25% |
| 16 | ████████ | 306 | 36% | +0.3% | +35% | +96% | +24% |
| 17 | ████████ | 318 | 35% | +0.2% | +49% | +52% | +17% |
| 18 | ████████ | 292 | 29% | -0.7% | +16% | -198% | +17% |
| 19 | ████████ | 304 | 36% | -0.4% | +19% | -120% | +16% |
| 20 | ████████ | 312 | 38% | +0.5% | +34% | +158% | +14% |
| 21 | ████████ | 321 | 34% | -0.5% | +40% | -157% | -53% |
| 22 | ████████ | 302 | 27% | -0.8% | +19% | -235% | -52% |
| 23 | ████████ | 283 | 40% | +1.4% | +55% | +406% | -48% |
| 24 | ████████ | 300 | 27% | -0.8% | +12% | -248% | -47% |
| 25 | ████████ | 335 | 35% | -0.0% | +22% | -1% | -47% |
| 26 | ████████ | 233 | 27% | -0.7% | +19% | -155% | -45% |
| 27 | ████████ | 307 | 38% | -0.1% | +25% | -18% | -44% |
| 28 | ████████ | 318 | 33% | -0.3% | +36% | -85% | -43% |
| 29 | ████████ | 319 | 26% | -0.7% | +13% | -211% | -42% |
| 30 | ████████ | 328 | 34% | -0.2% | +25% | -51% | -42% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 480 | 34% | -0.07R | -0.46% |
| BANKNIFTY | 454 | 36% | +0.01R | -0.25% |
Full transcript (33 words)
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