Your idea: Look for stocks with a daily closing price of at least 100, and a dail…
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Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.09R across 24,605 trades
- ✕ Only 37% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2024, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -33% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 5-minute trigger-candle breakout with daily new-high filter and EMA momentum confirmation; intraday breakout with swing-low trailing stop. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 24,605 trades, win 37%, payoff 2.08, expectancy +0.09R/trade (avg +0.31%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18% | -1% | +87% | +30% | -12% | +16% | -9% | -1% | -3% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1310 | 31% | -0.18R | -1.27% |
| 2019 | 2600 | 35% | -0.04R | -0.32% |
| 2020 | 3105 | 44% | +0.35R | +2.50% |
| 2021 | 3205 | 39% | +0.23R | +1.03% |
| 2022 | 3122 | 35% | +0.02R | -0.13% |
| 2023 | 3544 | 43% | +0.41R | +1.55% |
| 2024 | 3322 | 33% | -0.04R | -0.55% |
| 2025 | 3089 | 31% | -0.12R | -0.91% |
| 2026 | 1308 | 29% | -0.23R | -1.17% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 137 | 50% | +14.2% | +209% | +1947% | +191% |
| 2 | ████████ | 126 | 51% | +8.0% | +104% | +1002% | +126% |
| 3 | ████████ | 164 | 45% | +2.9% | +59% | +484% | +106% |
| 4 | ████████ | 146 | 30% | +1.8% | +108% | +264% | +81% |
| 5 | ████████ | 166 | 36% | +0.3% | +52% | +57% | +78% |
| 6 | ████████ | 51 | 31% | -1.2% | +21% | -61% | +66% |
| 7 | ████████ | 170 | 28% | -1.1% | +21% | -187% | +39% |
| 8 | NESTLEIND free peek | 155 | 32% | -0.9% | +19% | -144% | +36% |
| 9 | ████████ | 165 | 34% | +0.0% | +24% | +1% | +31% |
| 10 | ████████ | 159 | 38% | +0.1% | +41% | +24% | +29% |
| 11 | ████████ | 154 | 44% | +6.2% | +86% | +949% | +27% |
| 12 | ████████ | 150 | 47% | +7.2% | +156% | +1073% | +26% |
| 13 | ████████ | 87 | 37% | +2.3% | +54% | +198% | +22% |
| 14 | ████████ | 156 | 35% | +0.3% | +48% | +52% | +22% |
| 15 | ████████ | 170 | 35% | +0.1% | +37% | +13% | +21% |
| 16 | ████████ | 148 | 34% | -0.2% | +35% | -32% | +21% |
| 17 | ████████ | 138 | 33% | +0.6% | +27% | +79% | +20% |
| 18 | ████████ | 168 | 36% | +0.2% | +28% | +30% | +20% |
| 19 | ████████ | 135 | 36% | +0.8% | +37% | +102% | +19% |
| 20 | ████████ | 147 | 30% | -1.3% | +16% | -189% | +18% |
| 21 | ████████ | 171 | 32% | -0.6% | +28% | -103% | -48% |
| 22 | ████████ | 173 | 32% | -0.8% | +51% | -137% | -46% |
| 23 | ████████ | 150 | 26% | -1.2% | +36% | -182% | -41% |
| 24 | ████████ | 136 | 40% | +0.3% | +39% | +41% | -41% |
| 25 | ████████ | 159 | 35% | -1.1% | +34% | -174% | -39% |
| 26 | ████████ | 182 | 43% | +1.8% | +51% | +329% | -39% |
| 27 | ████████ | 173 | 39% | +0.6% | +22% | +103% | -36% |
| 28 | ████████ | 158 | 37% | +1.2% | +47% | +194% | -36% |
| 29 | ████████ | 147 | 31% | -1.6% | +17% | -229% | -35% |
| 30 | ████████ | 90 | 32% | -1.2% | +34% | -112% | -35% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 281 | 34% | -0.04R | -0.39% |
| BANKNIFTY | 257 | 36% | +0.03R | -0.03% |
Full transcript (136 words)
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