Your idea: Intraday option buying, ITM options on 5 minute timeframe with supetre…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: a Supertrend flip on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.
7,400 trades on ₹1L: net -640.8% over 12 years (-53.4%/yr, loses money), win 40%, payoff 1.37 (avg win ₹2,288 / avg loss ₹-1,666), max drawdown -675%, worst trade ₹-11,518. 2015: ₹-22,103. 2016: ₹-57,650. 2017: ₹-24,518. 2018: ₹-13,679. 2019: ₹-43,346. 2020: ₹-48,101. 2021: ₹-86,830. 2022: ₹-74,048. 2023: ₹-108,124. 2024: ₹-30,800. 2025: ₹-104,656. 2026: ₹-26,939.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 273 | 42% | ₹-22,103 |
| 2016 | 437 | 40% | ₹-57,650 |
| 2017 | 580 | 44% | ₹-24,518 |
| 2018 | 546 | 42% | ₹-13,679 |
| 2019 | 582 | 38% | ₹-43,346 |
| 2020 | 612 | 41% | ₹-48,101 |
| 2021 | 966 | 39% | ₹-86,830 |
| 2022 | 767 | 39% | ₹-74,048 |
| 2023 | 708 | 37% | ₹-108,124 |
| 2024 | 604 | 40% | ₹-30,800 |
| 2025 | 934 | 39% | ₹-104,656 |
| 2026 | 391 | 43% | ₹-26,939 |
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