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Your idea: Intraday opening range breakout on 5-minute candles for NSE stocks, lo…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 28 Oct 2026, 10:23 PM IST
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.31R expectancy across 15,263 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.0 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -26% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Opening-range breakout (ORB) on 5-min NSE stock charts with VWAP trend filter, volume confirmation, and ATR-based stops/targets. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 15,263 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.03, expectancy +0.31R/trade (avg +1.59%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return+115.5%
CAGR+10.2%
Max drawdown-26.1%
Trades383 · 120 won
₹200,000 → ₹430,947
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +14% | +57% | +14% | +5% | +18% | +2% | -1% | -9% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 761 | 20% | -0.50R | -3.34% |
| 2019 | 1545 | 29% | -0.04R | -0.13% |
| 2020 | 2021 | 44% | +0.85R | +6.47% |
| 2021 | 1991 | 37% | +0.46R | +2.57% |
| 2022 | 1941 | 28% | -0.07R | -0.64% |
| 2023 | 2360 | 45% | +1.26R | +5.27% |
| 2024 | 2055 | 28% | +0.07R | +0.04% |
| 2025 | 1757 | 28% | -0.09R | -0.72% |
| 2026 | 832 | 23% | -0.31R | -1.48% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 105 | 50% | +16.9% | +124% | +1780% | +195% |
| 2 | ████████ | 86 | 47% | +8.5% | +104% | +729% | +187% |
| 3 | ████████ | 93 | 52% | +26.1% | +181% | +2430% | +184% |
| 4 | ████████ | 85 | 31% | +2.9% | +52% | +249% | +143% |
| 5 | ████████ | 87 | 40% | +8.0% | +125% | +696% | +85% |
| 6 | ████████ | 81 | 35% | +3.2% | +101% | +260% | +71% |
| 7 | ████████ | 107 | 49% | +8.0% | +59% | +852% | +69% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 104 | 34% | +2.2% | +68% | +229% | +60% |
| 9 | ████████ | 115 | 37% | +5.3% | +61% | +607% | +59% |
| 10 | ████████ | 112 | 38% | +4.3% | +65% | +486% | +50% |
| 11 | ████████ | 30 | 27% | -2.1% | +22% | -64% | +37% |
| 12 | ████████ | 106 | 42% | +3.7% | +66% | +394% | +31% |
| 13 | ████████ | 55 | 40% | +5.9% | +70% | +325% | +29% |
| 14 | ████████ | 127 | 36% | +0.7% | +32% | +88% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 115 | 34% | +2.0% | +50% | +231% | +10% |
| 16 | ████████ | 116 | 37% | +1.7% | +61% | +198% | +7% |
| 17 | ████████ | 96 | 46% | +3.8% | +52% | +363% | +5% |
| 18 | ████████ | 114 | 38% | +1.1% | +42% | +121% | +5% |
| 19 | ████████ | 93 | 38% | +0.9% | +31% | +86% | +4% |
| 20 | ████████ | 106 | 27% | -1.8% | +29% | -190% | +4% |
| 21 | ████████ | 108 | 30% | +0.6% | +37% | +63% | -53% |
| 22 | ████████ | 78 | 31% | +1.8% | +60% | +139% | -50% |
| 23 | ████████ | 106 | 30% | +1.9% | +106% | +203% | -45% |
| 24 | ████████ | 110 | 29% | -0.3% | +36% | -37% | -41% |
| 25 | ████████ | 96 | 30% | -1.3% | +34% | -124% | -36% |
| 26 | ████████ | 89 | 35% | +0.8% | +40% | +67% | -34% |
| 27 | ████████ | 106 | 30% | +1.7% | +86% | +175% | -34% |
| 28 | ████████ | 120 | 38% | +3.5% | +83% | +424% | -34% |
| 29 | ████████ | 85 | 20% | -2.5% | +26% | -211% | -33% |
| 30 | ████████ | 110 | 31% | -0.3% | +49% | -37% | -33% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -211% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 199 | 35% | +0.11R | +0.06% |
| BANKNIFTY | 174 | 36% | +0.27R | +0.81% |
Full transcript (231 words)
Intraday opening range breakout on 5-minute candles for NSE stocks, long and short. The opening range is the high and low of the first 15 minutes (09:15–09:30).
▎
▎ Long entry: a 5-minute candle closes above the opening range high plus 0.5%. Short entry: a candle closes below the opening range low minus 0.5%. The breakout candle must have been outside the range for at least 2 bars, or have volume of 1.8x average or more.
▎
▎ Filters, all required:
▎ - Candle volume is at least 1.2x the average volume for that same time of day over the last 14 sessions.
▎ - Trend: price is above VWAP for a long, below VWAP for a short.
▎ - The opening range width is between 0.4% and 3.5% of price.
▎ - No new entries after 11:00.
▎
▎ Stop loss: entry ± 3 × ATR(14). Take profit: the larger of the opening range width and 1.5 × the risk (1.5R). Use a single exit at the target with no partial exits. If neither stop nor target is hit, exit all positions at 15:00. One trade per symbol per direction per day (taking the first valid signal).
Check the ORB stop and target against what you actually run. These are the defaults in orb.pine. The live setup may run a partial exit at TP1, and the stop multiplier was tuned.
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