Your idea: In indian stock market open a stock in 15M time frame and add 12 EMA a…
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Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.08R across 17,857 trades
- ✕ Only 29% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2024, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -34% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 2-period MA crossing above 12-EMA on 15-min intraday bars for long entry; opposite for short. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 17,857 trades, win 29%, payoff 2.99, expectancy +0.08R/trade (avg +0.26%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-19 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -12% | +3% | +90% | +15% | -14% | +10% | -5% | -6% | -12% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1008 | 28% | -0.04R | -0.47% |
| 2019 | 2221 | 27% | -0.01R | -0.30% |
| 2020 | 2128 | 36% | +0.31R | +2.13% |
| 2021 | 2260 | 31% | +0.16R | +0.75% |
| 2022 | 2233 | 29% | +0.01R | -0.13% |
| 2023 | 2200 | 33% | +0.34R | +1.27% |
| 2024 | 2346 | 28% | -0.01R | -0.27% |
| 2025 | 2548 | 25% | -0.08R | -0.72% |
| 2026 | 913 | 27% | -0.09R | -0.47% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 104 | 33% | +7.1% | +211% | +733% | +70% |
| 2 | ████████ | 117 | 27% | +2.9% | +84% | +345% | +38% |
| 3 | ████████ | 104 | 36% | +4.7% | +108% | +487% | +34% |
| 4 | ████████ | 103 | 33% | +3.9% | +72% | +405% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 87 | 38% | +2.2% | +43% | +188% | +32% |
| 6 | ████████ | 120 | 28% | +0.9% | +39% | +112% | +31% |
| 7 | ████████ | 136 | 25% | -0.4% | +41% | -55% | +31% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 113 | 28% | +1.1% | +54% | +121% | +27% |
| 9 | ████████ | 123 | 24% | +0.3% | +114% | +40% | +27% |
| 10 | ████████ | 39 | 18% | -1.5% | +18% | -60% | +27% |
| 11 | ████████ | 110 | 32% | +4.5% | +156% | +494% | +26% |
| 12 | ████████ | 99 | 36% | +1.9% | +41% | +185% | +20% |
| 13 | ████████ | 117 | 31% | +0.6% | +48% | +68% | +19% |
| 14 | ████████ | 120 | 26% | -0.5% | +34% | -56% | +18% |
| 15 | ████████ | 118 | 28% | +0.3% | +31% | +30% | +17% |
| 16 | ████████ | 120 | 28% | +0.1% | +35% | +9% | +17% |
| 17 | ████████ | 109 | 30% | +0.1% | +23% | +16% | +16% |
| 18 | ████████ | 114 | 26% | +0.1% | +33% | +7% | +13% |
| 19 | ████████ | 131 | 32% | -0.1% | +25% | -19% | +12% |
| 20 | ████████ | 124 | 29% | -0.2% | +27% | -22% | +12% |
| 21 | ████████ | 71 | 31% | -0.4% | +29% | -25% | -39% |
| 22 | ████████ | 121 | 29% | -0.5% | +30% | -57% | -29% |
| 23 | ████████ | 125 | 27% | -0.5% | +37% | -61% | -28% |
| 24 | ████████ | 125 | 24% | -0.1% | +33% | -19% | -27% |
| 25 | ████████ | 102 | 25% | +0.3% | +24% | +27% | -26% |
| 26 | ████████ | 115 | 28% | -0.3% | +26% | -30% | -23% |
| 27 | ████████ | 124 | 22% | +0.3% | +44% | +36% | -21% |
| 28 | ████████ | 109 | 28% | +0.3% | +28% | +33% | -20% |
| 29 | ████████ | 123 | 27% | +0.4% | +39% | +53% | -20% |
| 30 | ████████ | 121 | 28% | -0.2% | +35% | -24% | -19% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 152 | 30% | +0.01R | -0.20% |
| BANKNIFTY | 163 | 34% | +0.06R | -0.04% |
Full transcript (39 words)
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