Your idea: IF (rsi_15m cross_below 70 or rsi_15m cross_below 50) and macd_3m.mac…
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Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.08R across 7,678 trades
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2024, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -24% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: MACD signal-line cross (sell when MACD < signal on 3m) combined with RSI overbought filter (15m RSI below 70/50); intraday short bias with 2% target and 50% stop. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 7,678 trades, win 35%, payoff 2.26, expectancy +0.08R/trade (avg +0.26%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +8% | +59% | +16% | -5% | +18% | -5% | -10% | -4% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 236 | 30% | -0.15R | -1.21% |
| 2019 | 778 | 34% | +0.02R | -0.05% |
| 2020 | 792 | 40% | +0.30R | +1.94% |
| 2021 | 1429 | 38% | +0.19R | +0.88% |
| 2022 | 773 | 34% | +0.03R | +0.16% |
| 2023 | 1142 | 40% | +0.29R | +1.02% |
| 2024 | 1342 | 31% | -0.03R | -0.44% |
| 2025 | 884 | 28% | -0.14R | -1.07% |
| 2026 | 302 | 31% | -0.14R | -0.75% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 50 | 36% | +6.4% | +104% | +319% | +40% |
| 2 | ████████ | 57 | 40% | +1.9% | +27% | +109% | +26% |
| 3 | ████████ | 52 | 33% | +3.5% | +71% | +183% | +25% |
| 4 | ████████ | 31 | 26% | -0.4% | +22% | -11% | +22% |
| 5 | ████████ | 66 | 27% | +0.3% | +28% | +21% | +20% |
| 6 | ████████ | 48 | 31% | +1.7% | +52% | +83% | +19% |
| 7 | ████████ | 46 | 33% | +0.5% | +27% | +23% | +19% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 10 | 10% | -1.9% | +19% | -19% | +18% |
| 9 | ████████ | 41 | 39% | +2.3% | +52% | +96% | +15% |
| 10 | ████████ | 61 | 38% | +0.7% | +24% | +40% | +15% |
| 11 | ████████ | 68 | 26% | -0.2% | +29% | -14% | +12% |
| 12 | ████████ | 47 | 49% | +5.6% | +44% | +263% | +11% |
| 13 | ████████ | 56 | 29% | -1.3% | +9% | -71% | +11% |
| 14 | ████████ | 57 | 33% | +0.3% | +23% | +17% | +10% |
| 15 | ████████ | 46 | 28% | +1.7% | +67% | +79% | +9% |
| 16 | ████████ | 38 | 45% | +1.4% | +26% | +52% | +8% |
| 17 | ████████ | 50 | 38% | +1.0% | +19% | +51% | +8% |
| 18 | ████████ | 19 | 37% | -0.5% | +9% | -9% | +8% |
| 19 | ████████ | 59 | 42% | +1.1% | +24% | +68% | +7% |
| 20 | ████████ | 65 | 42% | +0.7% | +20% | +47% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 28 | 32% | -1.6% | +11% | -44% | -29% |
| 22 | ████████ | 54 | 33% | -0.7% | +16% | -37% | -23% |
| 23 | ████████ | 47 | 36% | -0.6% | +19% | -27% | -23% |
| 24 | ████████ | 51 | 33% | +0.6% | +39% | +33% | -22% |
| 25 | ████████ | 71 | 31% | +0.2% | +25% | +12% | -21% |
| 26 | ████████ | 39 | 41% | -0.0% | +16% | -2% | -19% |
| 27 | ████████ | 51 | 25% | -1.8% | +10% | -90% | -17% |
| 28 | ████████ | 46 | 37% | -0.3% | +21% | -15% | -17% |
| 29 | ████████ | 50 | 30% | -0.2% | +20% | -11% | -17% |
| 30 | ████████ | 50 | 34% | +0.4% | +29% | +19% | -15% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 84 | 32% | +0.00R | -0.22% |
| BANKNIFTY | 82 | 35% | -0.01R | -0.14% |
Full transcript (21 words)
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