Your idea: IF (rsi_15m cross_below 70 or rsi_15m cross_below 50) and macd_3m.mac…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: a MACD signal-line cross on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 10% / target 15% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
4,980 trades on ₹1L: net -645.8% over 12 years (-53.8%/yr, loses money), win 38%, payoff 1.23 (avg win ₹1,023 / avg loss ₹-829), max drawdown -668%, worst trade ₹-4,014. 2015: ₹-11,935. 2016: ₹-13,633. 2017: ₹-36,615. 2018: ₹-26,621. 2019: ₹-31,386. 2020: ₹-82,092. 2021: ₹-70,203. 2022: ₹-72,147. 2023: ₹-54,737. 2024: ₹-65,694. 2025: ₹-160,103. 2026: ₹-20,621.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 197 | 45% | ₹-11,935 |
| 2016 | 287 | 43% | ₹-13,633 |
| 2017 | 376 | 40% | ₹-36,615 |
| 2018 | 395 | 40% | ₹-26,621 |
| 2019 | 360 | 39% | ₹-31,386 |
| 2020 | 414 | 34% | ₹-82,092 |
| 2021 | 632 | 39% | ₹-70,203 |
| 2022 | 461 | 36% | ₹-72,147 |
| 2023 | 506 | 37% | ₹-54,737 |
| 2024 | 415 | 37% | ₹-65,694 |
| 2025 | 681 | 34% | ₹-160,103 |
| 2026 | 256 | 39% | ₹-20,621 |
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