Your idea: I have a strategy thinking aloud it only works for gap up or gap down…
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Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.22R per trade across 28,756 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.93 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ Only 30% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -100% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Intraday gap-down scalp: buy PE at market open after SGX NIFTY gap-down confirmation, exit within 5 minutes with trailing profit or loss. Ran on 138 small-caps, real costs. 28,756 trades, win 30%, payoff 0.93, expectancy -0.22R/trade (avg -1.11%/trade).
This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 0% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -80% | -100% | +0% | +0% | +0% | +0% | +0% | +0% | +0% |
Simulated on the 138 small-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1303 | 27% | -0.27R | -1.34% |
| 2019 | 2726 | 29% | -0.23R | -1.17% |
| 2020 | 4940 | 27% | -0.31R | -1.54% |
| 2021 | 4054 | 29% | -0.24R | -1.21% |
| 2022 | 3757 | 32% | -0.19R | -0.93% |
| 2023 | 3668 | 30% | -0.17R | -0.87% |
| 2024 | 3840 | 30% | -0.20R | -1.02% |
| 2025 | 3050 | 32% | -0.18R | -0.89% |
| 2026 | 1418 | 32% | -0.16R | -0.81% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 138 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 175 | 33% | -1.1% | +14% | -185% | +11% |
| 2 | ████████ | 232 | 29% | -1.5% | +12% | -343% | +11% |
| 3 | ████████ | 190 | 23% | -1.3% | +18% | -242% | +10% |
| 4 | ████████ | 258 | 24% | -1.4% | +14% | -360% | +10% |
| 5 | ████████ | 293 | 31% | -1.2% | +9% | -350% | +6% |
| 6 | ████████ | 209 | 32% | -1.1% | +7% | -227% | +5% |
| 7 | ████████ | 288 | 35% | -1.0% | +18% | -300% | +5% |
| 8 | OLECTRA free peek | 360 | 22% | -1.5% | +17% | -536% | +5% |
| 9 | ████████ | 311 | 32% | -0.9% | +17% | -274% | +4% |
| 10 | ████████ | 201 | 35% | -0.3% | +18% | -59% | +3% |
| 11 | ████████ | 149 | 37% | -0.8% | +8% | -124% | +3% |
| 12 | ████████ | 182 | 33% | -1.0% | +6% | -187% | +3% |
| 13 | ████████ | 212 | 25% | -1.3% | +7% | -286% | +3% |
| 14 | ████████ | 209 | 26% | -1.1% | +12% | -238% | +2% |
| 15 | ████████ | 77 | 26% | -1.1% | +3% | -84% | +1% |
| 16 | ████████ | 244 | 29% | -1.2% | +12% | -300% | +1% |
| 17 | ████████ | 226 | 27% | -1.4% | +12% | -322% | +1% |
| 18 | ████████ | 60 | 22% | -1.1% | +10% | -69% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 222 | 35% | -0.6% | +14% | -137% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 185 | 31% | -1.2% | +12% | -213% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 179 | 31% | -1.0% | +18% | -187% | -29% |
| 22 | ████████ | 194 | 26% | -1.1% | +6% | -216% | -27% |
| 23 | ████████ | 190 | 24% | -1.3% | +9% | -253% | -26% |
| 24 | ████████ | 219 | 28% | -1.1% | +16% | -233% | -26% |
| 25 | ████████ | 264 | 32% | -1.0% | +18% | -254% | -25% |
| 26 | ████████ | 198 | 24% | -1.0% | +13% | -206% | -24% |
| 27 | ████████ | 110 | 26% | -1.3% | +10% | -148% | -23% |
| 28 | ████████ | 328 | 30% | -1.3% | +18% | -434% | -22% |
| 29 | ████████ | 267 | 29% | -1.1% | +16% | -291% | -22% |
| 30 | ████████ | 252 | 29% | -1.1% | +19% | -281% | -22% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Full transcript (48 words)
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