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Your idea: Forex Strategy: 9 EMA + 20 EMA + RSI Timeframe: 15-minute chart Indica…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 14 Sep 2026, 08:06 PM IST
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for
the forex market.
We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully —
every result below is on Indian market data.
Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.28R across 6,590 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.2 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 9/20 EMA crossover with RSI filter (>50 buy, <50 sell) on 15-min forex bars; pullback + candle close entry; 1 ATR stop, 2:1 risk/reward. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,590 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.20, expectancy +0.28R/trade (avg +1.48%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return+179.4%
CAGR+13.9%
Max drawdown-19.5%
Trades410 · 146 won
₹200,000 → ₹558,824
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +17% | +2% | +40% | +28% | -2% | +26% | +0% | +4% | +2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 402 | 30% | -0.12R | -1.14% |
| 2019 | 873 | 31% | +0.07R | +0.24% |
| 2020 | 711 | 46% | +0.94R | +7.58% |
| 2021 | 765 | 36% | +0.35R | +1.98% |
| 2022 | 851 | 31% | +0.07R | +0.16% |
| 2023 | 832 | 42% | +1.08R | +4.55% |
| 2024 | 810 | 27% | +0.10R | +0.44% |
| 2025 | 946 | 25% | -0.08R | -0.74% |
| 2026 | 400 | 25% | -0.23R | -1.16% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 39 | 33% | +1.7% | +44% | +67% | +44% |
| 2 | ████████ | 34 | 35% | +7.8% | +55% | +265% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 35 | 34% | +4.6% | +92% | +161% | +36% |
| 4 | ████████ | 40 | 40% | +4.9% | +86% | +195% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 49 | 33% | +2.9% | +59% | +144% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 37 | 46% | +15.8% | +162% | +586% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 39 | 36% | +4.5% | +74% | +177% | +32% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 17 | 18% | -1.8% | +22% | -30% | +26% |
| 9 | ████████ | 39 | 38% | +4.6% | +68% | +178% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 38 | 37% | +8.8% | +191% | +334% | +23% |
| 11 | ████████ | 28 | 46% | +6.2% | +51% | +175% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 28 | 25% | +2.1% | +55% | +58% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 42 | 40% | +0.7% | +43% | +31% | +18% |
| 14 | ████████ | 45 | 36% | +2.6% | +72% | +117% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 47 | 36% | +1.4% | +42% | +68% | +15% |
| 16 | ████████ | 41 | 34% | +1.7% | +56% | +70% | +14% |
| 17 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +3.8% | +109% | +162% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 45 | 40% | +3.1% | +42% | +142% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 46 | 35% | +2.2% | +69% | +102% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 51 | 27% | -0.9% | +33% | -48% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 43 | 26% | +1.5% | +61% | +63% | -23% |
| 22 | ████████ | 38 | 37% | +3.4% | +37% | +130% | -22% |
| 23 | ████████ | 49 | 22% | -0.5% | +29% | -25% | -21% |
| 24 | ████████ | 48 | 27% | -0.8% | +20% | -37% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 45 | 20% | -0.0% | +38% | +0% | -20% |
| 26 | ████████ | 42 | 24% | +1.1% | +48% | +47% | -20% |
| 27 | ████████ | 37 | 32% | +1.2% | +32% | +44% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 41 | 29% | +1.2% | +59% | +49% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 46 | 41% | +1.2% | +26% | +56% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 47 | 26% | -0.7% | +32% | -33% | -17% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -48% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 52 | 33% | +0.36R | +0.69% |
| BANKNIFTY | 58 | 38% | +0.28R | +0.66% |
Full transcript (269 words)
Forex Strategy: 9 EMA + 20 EMA + RSI Timeframe: 15-minute chart Indicators: 9 EMA 20 EMA RSI (14) BUY Rules 9 EMA must be above 20 EMA. RSI must be above 50. Price must pull back toward the 9 EMA or the area between the 9 EMA and 20 EMA. After the pullback, wait for a bullish candle to close. Enter BUY at the close of that bullish candle. Stop-loss: 1 × ATR(14) below the entry price. Take-profit: 2 × the initial risk (1:2 risk/reward). Exit immediately if the 9 EMA crosses below the 20 EMA before the target or stop-loss is reached. SELL Rules 9 EMA must be below 20 EMA. RSI must be below 50. Price must pull back toward the 9 EMA or the area between the 9 EMA and 20 EMA. After the pullback, wait for a bearish candle to close. Enter SELL at the close of that bearish candle. Stop-loss: 1 × ATR(14) above the entry price. Take-profit: 2 × the initial risk (1:2 risk/reward). Exit immediately if the 9 EMA crosses above the 20 EMA before the target or stop-loss is reached. Risk Management Risk exactly 1% of account capital per trade. Only one open trade at a time. No averaging down. No martingale. Include spread and commission in the backtest if supported. Backtest Requirements Backtest this strategy on EUR/USD using historical data. Report: Total trades Winning trades Losing trades Win rate Net profit Maximum drawdown Profit factor Average profit per trade Largest winning trade Largest losing trade Consecutive wins/losses Equity curve Also show the results separately for BUY and SELL trades.
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