Your idea: entry is after 9.18 am when market opens 5 ema is above 20 ema buy 250… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: entry is after 9.18 am when market opens 5 ema is above 20 ema buy 250…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 26 Oct 2026, 08:28 AM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

EMA

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

3,615 trades on ₹1L: net -293.5% over 12 years (-24.5%/yr, loses money), win 41%, payoff 1.34 (avg win ₹2,285 / avg loss ₹-1,699), max drawdown -327%, worst trade ₹-11,518. 2015: ₹-6,080. 2016: ₹-19,441. 2017: ₹-60. 2018: ₹+19,838. 2019: ₹-15,935. 2020: ₹-35,433. 2021: ₹+24,593. 2022: ₹-53,874. 2023: ₹-33,147. 2024: ₹-25,408. 2025: ₹-114,255. 2026: ₹-34,268.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
201514845% ₹-6,080
201623943% ₹-19,441
201728642% ₹-60
201826344% ₹+19,838
201927938% ₹-15,935
202032038% ₹-35,433
202142543% ₹+24,593
202235740% ₹-53,874
202334339% ₹-33,147
202430038% ₹-25,408
202546140% ₹-114,255
202619441% ₹-34,268
Full transcript (60 words)
entry is after 9.18 am when market opens 5 ema is above 20 ema buy 250 premium ce option in nifty and when 20 ema cross 5 ema buy 250 premium pe max loss per day 2000 target per day is 13000. trailing stoloss activate at 900 rs after that every 300 rs 120 rs trail. timeframe is 1 min

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.