Your idea: ema cross over 5 and 20 - timeframe is 1 min, when market opens if 5 e… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: ema cross over 5 and 20 - timeframe is 1 min, when market opens if 5 e…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 26 Oct 2026, 08:05 AM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

EMA

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 100% / target 80% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.

3,615 trades on ₹1L: net -323.7% over 12 years (-27.0%/yr, loses money), win 43%, payoff 1.22 (avg win ₹2,426 / avg loss ₹-1,995), max drawdown -352%, worst trade ₹-19,800. 2015: ₹+6,288. 2016: ₹-34,792. 2017: ₹-4,747. 2018: ₹+19,245. 2019: ₹-27,336. 2020: ₹-2,350. 2021: ₹+15,462. 2022: ₹-48,284. 2023: ₹-44,961. 2024: ₹-17,104. 2025: ₹-177,093. 2026: ₹-8,042.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
201514846% ₹+6,288
201623944% ₹-34,792
201728643% ₹-4,747
201826346% ₹+19,245
201927941% ₹-27,336
202032042% ₹-2,350
202142546% ₹+15,462
202235745% ₹-48,284
202334342% ₹-44,961
202430040% ₹-17,104
202546141% ₹-177,093
202619445% ₹-8,042
Full transcript (74 words)
ema cross over 5 and 20 - timeframe is 1 min, when market opens if 5 ema is above 20 ema enrty will happen after 9.18 am and buy 250 premium ce and when 20 ema cross buy 250 premium pe, target is 200 option points or 13000 rs overall p& l and stoploss is overall p&l -2000 day close maximum loss per day is also 2000 only and universal exit is 3.05 pm.

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.