Your idea: Define OR as the high/low of the first 15 min (09:15–09:30). • Long…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: breakout of a recent high. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-20 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1% | +1% | +33% | +29% | -9% | +16% | +3% | -11% | -11% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 657 | 16% | -0.59R | -3.78% |
| 2019 | 1314 | 27% | -0.02R | -0.01% |
| 2020 | 1817 | 44% | +0.99R | +7.31% |
| 2021 | 1801 | 35% | +0.44R | +2.56% |
| 2022 | 1664 | 26% | -0.07R | -0.74% |
| 2023 | 2119 | 44% | +1.32R | +5.57% |
| 2024 | 1835 | 27% | +0.13R | +0.34% |
| 2025 | 1504 | 29% | -0.02R | -0.39% |
| 2026 | 714 | 22% | -0.36R | -1.72% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 82 | 51% | +25.3% | +181% | +2077% | +198% |
| 2 | ████████ | 99 | 51% | +19.0% | +124% | +1880% | +159% |
| 3 | ████████ | 76 | 33% | +3.6% | +52% | +277% | +143% |
| 4 | ████████ | 78 | 42% | +6.4% | +85% | +500% | +137% |
| 5 | ████████ | 75 | 41% | +9.0% | +125% | +672% | +75% |
| 6 | ████████ | 69 | 36% | +3.6% | +101% | +246% | +71% |
| 7 | ████████ | 95 | 34% | +2.6% | +68% | +246% | +64% |
| 8 | CUMMINSIND free peek | 106 | 43% | +6.8% | +61% | +717% | +51% |
| 9 | ████████ | 94 | 40% | +4.1% | +66% | +383% | +40% |
| 10 | ████████ | 48 | 38% | +4.1% | +55% | +198% | +29% |
| 11 | ████████ | 102 | 34% | +4.0% | +65% | +406% | +27% |
| 12 | ████████ | 98 | 46% | +7.5% | +59% | +738% | +23% |
| 13 | ████████ | 111 | 34% | +0.8% | +32% | +86% | +19% |
| 14 | ████████ | 103 | 37% | +3.2% | +61% | +332% | +3% |
| 15 | ████████ | 81 | 36% | -0.6% | +15% | -46% | +1% |
| 16 | ████████ | 93 | 31% | +3.1% | +61% | +293% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 92 | 39% | +2.1% | +32% | +194% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 83 | 33% | +2.0% | +46% | +170% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 100 | 31% | +1.7% | +50% | +170% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 80 | 34% | +0.2% | +36% | +19% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 70 | 27% | +2.1% | +60% | +150% | -46% |
| 22 | ████████ | 97 | 31% | +2.8% | +106% | +269% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 89 | 21% | -1.1% | +34% | -96% | -40% |
| 24 | ████████ | 85 | 28% | -0.0% | +32% | -3% | -40% |
| 25 | ████████ | 108 | 30% | +1.4% | +69% | +151% | -37% |
| 26 | ████████ | 70 | 23% | +0.1% | +107% | +7% | -36% |
| 27 | ████████ | 95 | 20% | -1.6% | +33% | -149% | -35% |
| 28 | ████████ | 93 | 39% | +1.2% | +29% | +115% | -34% |
| 29 | ████████ | 90 | 33% | +2.3% | +69% | +205% | -34% |
| 30 | ████████ | 104 | 31% | +2.2% | +81% | +232% | -34% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 174 | 32% | +0.04R | -0.09% |
| BANKNIFTY | 160 | 32% | +0.20R | +0.54% |
Full transcript (62 words)
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